This study addresses the problem of backcasting an export-base multiplier where data for earlier time periods do not exist. A procedure is outlined to backcast an export-base multiplier when the calculated export-base multiplier, using existing data, is found to be statistically unstable. An application is developed to estimate cumulative employment impacts in Churchill County, Nevada, as a result of nonperformance of a contract for delivered water between the Bureau of Reclamation and the Fallon Indians. Employment export-base multipliers were backcasted to 1910.
In the economics of biodiversity, the relevant policy question is the level of certainty of species survival, rather than the simplistic binary problem of species preservation or extinction. In this study models of cui-ui survival probability and economic cost of water transfer are developed to estimate the cost of an endangered species preservation: the Northwestern Nevada cui-ui fish. There is a cost of over 160 million dollars to increase the likelihood of cui-ui survival by 2 percent, from 53 to 55. The cost increases to over 2 billion dollars to increase the likelihood of cui-ui survival by 22 percent, from 63 to 85. These findings highlight the economic trade-offs associated with modifying the survival likelihood of an endangered species. These results also confirm quantitatively the biological fact that the survival uncertainty must explicitly enter any discussion of species preservation.• I.
<p><em>This paper studies the effects of fiscal stimuli on the real GDP of the United Kingdom for the period of 1997 through the first quarter of 2017. Structural vector autoregressive and vector error correction models are estimated. Impulse responses from both models provide support for the Keynesian view that fiscal stimuli are associated with rises in the real GDP. Variance decomposition analysis shows that over time, depending which model is considered; tax cuts impart a positive effect on the real GDP in the range of 5 to 20 percent. Government expenditure shocks account for 8 to 15 percent of variations in the real GDP based on the two models. The multipliers of tax cuts and government expenditures initially rise reaching a peak in the ninth quarter and decline to 1.60 and 1.74 in three years, respectively. </em></p>
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.