Dynamic Analysis of Fiscal Policy in the United Kingdom

Abstract

<p><em>This paper studies the effects of fiscal stimuli on the real GDP of the United Kingdom for the period of 1997 through the first quarter of 2017. Structural vector autoregressive and vector error correction models are estimated. Impulse responses from both models provide support for the Keynesian view that fiscal stimuli are associated with rises in the real GDP. Variance decomposition analysis shows that over time, depending which model is considered; tax cuts impart a positive effect on the real GDP in the range of 5 to 20 percent. Government expenditure shocks account for 8 to 15 percent of variations in the real GDP based on the two models. The multipliers of tax cuts and government expenditures initially rise reaching a peak in the ninth quarter and decline to 1.60 and 1.74 in three years, respectively. </em></p>

Impacto de variables subjetivas en la formación de la confianza del consumidor en México

“…Hizo una clara distinción entre la capacidad de los hogares y la voluntad de consumir. Argumentó que la disposición de un hogar es importante para el consumo discrecional o duradero, ya que capta los factores subjetivos (Adrangi y Macri, 2010) Andrangi y Macri (2010) investigaron la relación a corto y largo plazo entre la confianza y el consumo de los consumidores, los gastos en servicios, bienes no duraderos y los bienes duraderos para los EE.UU.…”