Econometric forecasting models typically perform bad in volatile environments as they are often present in economies in transition. Since forecasts of key macroeconomic variable are inevitable as guidelines for economic policy, one might alternatively make attempts at measuring market participants' expectations or conduct surveys. However, often financial markets are underdeveloped and regular surveys are unavailable in transition countries. In this paper we propose to conduct experimental stock markets to reveal market participants' expectations. Wе present the results frоm a series of pilot markets conducted in Bulgaria throughout 2002 indicating that the method could be useful especially for transition countries.
The paper presents a brief review of the systems of deposit insurance in accession countries, comparing their level of harmonization with the perspective of their EU integration. Studying the different practices of deposit insurance in the context of developing financial safety nets in future Europe we have found that: (i) there is overinsurance of deposits in accession countries, and (ii) that this could lead to increasing moral hazard, incentives deformation and increasing costs of banking intermediation in the whole euro area.
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