The paper presents a cross-country analysis of the second generation of currency boards (CB) introduced in three East European countries: Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania. We focus on their institutional, legal and political characteristics which are closely associated with the operation of the automatic mechanism (AM) of currency boards. The presence of an automatic mechanism within the framework of the currency board is often cited as a major counterpoint to the "discretion and subjectivity" of a classical central bank. Since there is no precise definition of automatic mechanisms in the literature, we define it as: "the presence of a positive cointegration relationship between the balance of payments and the reserve money (or money supply) and absence of discretionary variables in the model." When discretionary variables are present in the model in one form or another, we may speak of a "mechanism for adjustment through discretionconscious or unconscious." Within the framework of the second generation of currency boards, we reduce the channel of discretion to the presence of atypical balance sheet items and employment of a number of monetary policy instruments. We seek in this article to compare currency board automatic mechanism in Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania.L'article procède d'une analyse transversale par pays de la deuxième génération des "bureaux d'émission" (currency boards) introduits dans trois pays de l'Europe de l'Est. L'accent est mis sur les caractéristiques institutionnelles, juridiques et politiques qui sont étroitement associées à l'opération du mécanisme automatique (MA) des bureaux d'émission. L'existence d'un mécanisme automatique dans la structure d'un bureau d'émission est souvent mise en avant comme l'argument majeur à l'encontre de la "discrétion" et la "subjectivité" d'une banque centrale classique. Parce qu'il n'existe aucune définition précise du mécanisme automatique dans la littérature, nous la définissons comme "la présence d'une relation positive de cointégration entre la balance des paiements et les réserves monétaires (ou l'offre de monnaie) et l'absence de variables discrétionna-ires dans le modèle". Quand des variables discrétionnaires sont présentes dans le modèle sous une forme ou une autre, nous pouvons parler d'un "mécanisme d'ajustement discrétionnaire -conscient ou inconscient". Au sein de la structure de la deuxième génération des bureaux d'émission, la discrétion se réduit à la présence de postes atypiques dans le bilan et à l'emploi d'un certain nombre d'instruments de politique monétaire.L'article propose une comparaison du mécanisme automatique en Bulgarie, Estonie et Lithuanie.Brought to you by | HEC Bibliotheque Maryriam ET J.
It is often maintained that currency boards (CBs) and gold standards (GSs) are alike in that they are stringent monetary rules, the two basic features of which are high credibility of monetary authorities and the existence of automatic adjustment (non discretionary) mechanism. This article includes a comparative analysis of these two types of regimes both from the perspective of the sources and mechanisms of generating confidence and credibility, and the elements of operation of the automatic adjustment mechanism. Confidence under the GS is endogenously driven, whereas it is exogenously determined under the CB. CB is a much more asymmetric regime than GS (the adjustment is much to the detriment of peripheral countries) although asymmetry is a typical feature of any monetary regime. The lack of credibility is typical for peripheral countries and cannot be overcome completely even by "hard" monetary regimes.
Despite their progress Bulgaria and Romania significantly differ from the EU economies. In this article, on the basis of the theoretical and empirical achievements of the theory of optimal and (endogenous) currency areas we study to what extent the two South European economies are able to adopt the common economic (and above all monetary) policy of the EU, and to what extent the convergence to the EU stimulates the economic development of these countries. Despite the similarities, the two countries now differ fundamentally in their choice of a monetary regime-while Romania uses inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate, Bulgaria has adopted a currency board regime. For this purpose we analyze: (i) the degree of nominal, real and financial convergence and synchronization of the economic cycle with that of the European Union (using unconditional β convergence approach). Income and price levels, inflation rate, interest rate, monetary aggregates, credit, productivity etc. are among the studied variables; (ii) the resistance to different external and internal shocks (using VAR model) as well as (iii) the mechanisms for balancing and absorption of these shocks. To give a better comparative picture we compose the panel including Hungary and Czech Republic.
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