Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Using a standard decomposition of forecasts errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks. Thus, the reliability of disagreement as a proxy for uncertainty will be determined by the stability of the forecasting environment, and the length of the forecast horizon. Using density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we find direct evidence in support of our hypothesis. Our results support the use of GARCH-type models, rather than the ex post squared error in consensus forecasts, to estimate the ex ante variability of aggregate shocks as a component of aggregate uncertainty. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor mayJEL Code: E17, E37.

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We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining expert forecast disagreement and its evolution over horizons. Disagreement is postulated to have three components due to differences in: i) the initial prior beliefs, ii) the weights attached on priors, and iii) interpreting public information. The fixed-target, multihorizon, cross-country feature of the panel data allows us to estimate the relative importance of each component precisely. The first component explains nearly all to 30% of forecast disagreement as the horizon decreases from 24 months to 1 month. This finding firmly establishes the role of initial prior beliefs in generating expectation stickiness. We find the second component to have barely any effect on the evolution of forecast disagreement among experts. The importance of the third component increases from almost nothing to 70% as the horizon gets shorter via its interaction with the quality of the incoming news. We propose a new test of forecast efficiency in the context of Bayesian information processing and find significant heterogeneity in the nature of inefficiency across horizons and countries. (2006) in Beijing. We thank Jushan Bai, Badi Baltagi, John Jones, Peter Schmidt, Herman Stekler, Victor Zarnowitz, Arnold Zellner, two anonymous referees, and participants in above conferences for helpful comments and suggestions. We alone are responsible for any remaining errors and shortcomings.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. In this paper, we estimate the effect of psychiatric disorders on labor market outcomes using a structural equation model with a latent index for mental illness, an approach that acknowledges the continuous nature of psychiatric disability. We also address the potential endogeneity of mental illness using covariance instruments as suggested in Lewbel (2012), thus not requiring questionable exclusion restrictions for identification. Data come from the US National Comorbidity Survey -Replication (NCS-R) and the National Latino and Asian American Study (NLAAS). We find that depression and generalized anxiety disorder detract from the employment and labor force participation of males and females; however, we do not find evidence of adverse effects of panic attack or social phobia on any work outcomes of either males or females. After addressing the potential endogeneity of mental illness, we continue to find that mental illness adversely affects employment and labor force participation for both males and females, but the effect on weeks worked and days missed at work are significant for males only. Using our structural model we assess the policy implications of some of the recommendations in the Affordable Care Act, relating to expansion of benefits for mental health and substance use disorder benefits. We find potential gains in employment for 3.2 million individuals and reduction in workplace cost of absenteeism of $18.9 billion due to improved mental health of individuals who are in most need of treatment. Terms of use: Documents inJEL-Code: I100.

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OBJECTIVEThere is limited information on whether recent improvements in the control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among individuals with diabetes have been concentrated in particular sociodemographic groups. This article estimates racial/ethnic- and education-related disparities and examines trends in uncontrolled CVD risk factors among adults with diabetes. The main racial/ethnic comparisons made are with African Americans versus non-Latino whites and Mexican Americans versus non-Latino whites.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSThe analysis samples include adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1988–1994 and the NHANES 1999–2008 who self-reported having diabetes (n = 1,065, NHANES 1988–1994; n = 1,872, NHANES 1999–2008). By use of logistic regression models, we examined the correlates of binary indicators measuring 1) high blood glucose, 2) high blood pressure, 3) high cholesterol, and 4) smoking.RESULTSControl of blood glucose, blood pressure, and cholesterol improved among individuals with diabetes between the NHANES 1988–1994 and the NHANES 1999–2008, but there was no change in smoking prevalence. In the NHANES 1999–2008, racial/ethnic minorities and individuals without some college education were more likely to have poorly controlled blood glucose compared with non-Latino whites and those with some college education. In addition, individuals with diabetes who had at least some college education were less likely to smoke and had better blood pressure control compared with individuals with diabetes without at least some college education.CONCLUSIONSTrends in CVD risk factors among individuals with diabetes improved over the past 2 decades, but racial/ethnic- and education-related disparities have emerged in some areas.