This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017-18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short-and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.
The mining sector has become one of the main pillars in the Mongolian economy. Although the sector is the main driver of better export performance, it may also have a negative effect on traditional tradeable sectors and worsen their competitiveness. The study focuses on whether the Dutch disease symptoms have appeared in the Mongolian economy. A time series model is developed using quarterly data from the period of 2004 to 2012, the socalled mining boom years in Mongolia. Econometric results are derived from the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and suggest that the Dutch disease symptoms, the spending effect as well as the resource movement effect, have appeared during the researched period in Mongolia.
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