The effectiveness of forecast‐based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

Abstract

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017-18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short-and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.

Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness

“…Building a financial mechanism that is distinct from project and development funds-one that disburses funds based on forecasts of critical need and replenishes those funds based on risk assessments of future impacts-has already produced some well-structured and governed mechanisms. Examples include measures taken ahead of impacts from flood in Bangladesh (9) and dzud (a period of extreme drought and cold) in Mongolia (10). We need to further develop such mechanisms to address compound risks and complex emergencies.…”

Anticipatory action: Lessons for the future

“…The primary objective of these pilots is to generate evidence on the feasibility and impact of taking AA at a large scale, as previous pilots have often been much smaller both in funding and in number of beneficiaries reached. As a result of this work, evidence has been mounting that anticipatory action is an appropriate tool for wide-spread use (Gros et al, 2019(Gros et al, , 2022Pople et al, 2021). It is fast, efficient, effective, and dignified humanitarian action.…”

A perspective on impeding the COVID‐19 pandemic: Lessons from Mongolia's comprehensive countermeasure

“…4 Disasters of incorrigible nature such as droughts, floods, storms, heatwaves, and extreme winter surges (Dzuds) are climate change-related events that decapitate, especially the marginalized. 6 These recurrent catastrophic events prompted the Mongolian government to institutionalize disaster risk reduction interventions aided by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) through forecast-based humanitarian assistance. This reduced loss of human lives, livestock, and improved risk reduction outcomes.…”

“…This reduced loss of human lives, livestock, and improved risk reduction outcomes. 6,7 2 | SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS, HEALTH PROMOTION, HEALTH POLICY, AND REGIONAL COOPERATION ON LOCAL TRANSMISSION On January 26, 2020, as novel coronavirus spreads throughout the region, Mongolian President Khaltmaa Battulga quickly implemented travel restrictions at the Mongolian-Chinese borders. 7 Isolation of potential carriers, closure of all educational institutions, and cancellation of all public gatherings were enforced from January 27 until March 2, 2020.…”