Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness

Kruczkiewicz, Andrew; Klopp, Jacqueline M.; Fisher, Joshua; Mason, Simon J.; McClain, Shanna N.; Sheekh, N. M.; Moss, Rachel; Parks, Robbie M.; Braneon, Christian

doi:10.1073/pnas.2106795118

Cited by 75 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…There is a need to enhance risk-assessment protocols for flash floods, as well as risk management and reduction activities including the development of standard operating procedures for early warning and anticipatory action, and long-term resilience strategies [167,169,170]. However, in comparison to other flood types, data required to enable policy and climate service development, such as timing, duration, location and impact level, is largely absent on a global scale for flash floods [171,172].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Benefit Of Ffcimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The FFCI approach filters likely flash flood events from historical disaster databases that currently do not assign a flood subtype. If the FFCI-derived dataset of 'likely' flash floods did not exist, it would add considerable difficulty and require additional resources to delineate flash flood risk across Ecuador-a task that is a critical step in developing early warning and anticipatory action triggers and standard operating procedures for the Ecuador Red Cross and other organizations involved with disaster management [167]. Without this dataset, an anticipatory action program for flash floods would be potentially designed inappropriately as it would likely be conditioned on: a small sample size (the six 'flood' events within the input datasets that were assigned a type of 'flash flood'; the perceptions of a small group of decision makers, potentially not representing the interests of the most vulnerable populations; and an overfitted representation of extreme precipitation risk rather than for risk of flash flood occurrence and associated impact on lives and livelihoods.…”

Section: Benefit Of Ffcimentioning

confidence: 99%

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Development of a Flash Flood Confidence Index from Disaster Reports and Geophysical Susceptibility

Kruczkiewicz

Bucherie

Ayala³

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

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The analysis of historical disaster events is a critical step towards understanding current risk levels and changes in disaster risk over time. Disaster databases are potentially useful tools for exploring trends, however, criteria for inclusion of events and for associated descriptive characteristics is not standardized. For example, some databases include only primary disaster types, such as ‘flood’, while others include subtypes, such as ‘coastal flood’ and ‘flash flood’. Here we outline a method to identify candidate events for assignment of a specific disaster subtype—namely, ‘flash floods’—from the corresponding primary disaster type—namely, ‘flood’. Geophysical data, including variables derived from remote sensing, are integrated to develop an enhanced flash flood confidence index, consisting of both a flash flood confidence index based on text mining of disaster reports and a flash flood susceptibility index from remote sensing derived geophysical data. This method was applied to a historical flood event dataset covering Ecuador. Results indicate the potential value of disaggregating events labeled as a primary disaster type into events of a particular subtype. The outputs are potentially useful for disaster risk reduction and vulnerability assessment if appropriately evaluated for fitness of use.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Benefit Of Ffcimentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Benefit Of Ffcimentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Development of a Flash Flood Confidence Index from Disaster Reports and Geophysical Susceptibility

Kruczkiewicz

Bucherie

Ayala³

et al. 2021

Remote Sensing

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Because some places experience these events simultaneous there is a call for action plans to focus on a combination of hazards considering the current and future vulnerability of people and places (Kruczkiewicz et al, 2021). Despite this, we are still using one-hazard approaches to these problems which are most often siloed, disjointed and scant instead of a multi-hazard approach ( If we are to plan for better preparedness and response to compound dry-hot extreme events we need to use a whole-system approach and a health-in-all policies approach (Leppo et al, 2013), addressing micro-, meso-and macro-level benefits and trade-offs of actions and strategies developed and implemented, so we are better prepared to promote and protect health and well-being.…”

Section: Preparedness and Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Compound Dry-Hot Extreme Events Improving Individual and Community Preparedness and Response

Nunes

2021

Preprint

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The frequency of simultaneous or consecutive heatwaves, droughts and wildfires is increasing. Compound dry-hot extreme events, defined as a mix of concurrent or sequential occurrence of heatwaves, droughts and fires, contribute to risks and impacts to both society and the environment. Compound dry-hot extreme events already pose serious impacts on human health and well-being, and these impacts are expected to increase in the future. The purpose of this report is to discuss the need for improved individual and community preparedness and response to compound dry-hot extreme events, and to highlight the benefits such improvements would bring. In particular, the development and implementation of compound dry-hot extreme events action plans is essential for reducing the adverse health effects of current and future compound dry-hot extreme events.

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“…For example, in 2010, Haiti experienced a magnitude 7.0 earthquake that killed 250,000 people, followed by a cholera epidemic, and then a category two hurricane ( PAHO/WHO, 2011 ). Sequences of hazards can have a nonlinear additive effect on vulnerability, where the resultant risk is greater than the sum of the risk associated with individual hazards ( Kappes et al, 2012 ; Haqiqi et al, 2021 ; Kruczkiewicz et al, 2021 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple Hazard Uncertainty Visualization Challenges and Paths Forward

et al. 2021

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Making decisions with uncertainty is challenging for the general public, policymakers, and even highly trained scientists. Nevertheless, when faced with the need to respond to a potential hazard, people must make high-risk decisions with uncertainty. In some cases, people have to consider multiple hazards with various types of uncertainties. Multiple hazards can be interconnected by location, time, and/or environmental systems, and the hazards may interact, producing complex relationships among their associated uncertainties. The interaction between multiple hazards and their uncertainties can have nonlinear effects, where the resultant risk and uncertainty are greater than the sum of the risk and uncertainty associated with individual hazards. Effectively communicating the uncertainties related to such complicated systems should be a high priority because the frequency and variability of multiple hazard events due to climate change continue to increase. However, the communication of multiple hazard uncertainties and their interactions remains largely unexplored. The lack of practical guidance on conveying multiple hazard uncertainties is likely due in part to the field’s vast expanse, making it challenging to identify entry points. Here, we offer a perspective on three critical challenges related to uncertainty communication across various multiple hazard contexts to galvanize the research community. We advocate for systematic considerations of multiple hazard uncertainty communication that focus on trade-offs between complexity and factors, including mental effort, trust, and usability.

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Compound risks and complex emergencies require new approaches to preparedness

Cited by 75 publications

References 12 publications

Development of a Flash Flood Confidence Index from Disaster Reports and Geophysical Susceptibility

Development of a Flash Flood Confidence Index from Disaster Reports and Geophysical Susceptibility

Compound Dry-Hot Extreme Events Improving Individual and Community Preparedness and Response

Multiple Hazard Uncertainty Visualization Challenges and Paths Forward

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