The Cascadia subduction zone is thought to be capable of generating major earthquakes with moment magnitude as large as M(w) = 9 at an interval of several hundred years. The seismogenic portion of the plate interface is mostly offshore and is currently locked, as inferred from geodetic data. However, episodic surface displacements-in the direction opposite to the long-term deformation motions caused by relative plate convergence across a locked interface-are observed about every 14 months with an unusual tremor-like seismic signature. Here we show that these tremors are distributed over a depth range exceeding 40 km within a limited horizontal band. Many occurred within or close to the strong seismic reflectors above the plate interface where local earthquakes are absent, suggesting that the seismogenic process for tremors is fluid-related. The observed depth range implies that tremors could be associated with the variation of stress field induced by a transient slip along the deeper portion of the Cascadia interface or, alternatively, that episodic slip is more diffuse than originally suggested.

At the northern Cascadia margin, the Juan de Fuca plate is underthrusting North America at about 45 mm x yr(-1) (ref. 1), resulting in the potential for destructive great earthquakes. The downdip extent of coupling between the two plates is difficult to determine because the most recent such earthquake (thought to have been in 1700) occurred before instrumental recording. Thermal and deformation studies indicate that, off southern Vancouver Island, the interplate interface is presently fully locked for a distance of approximately 60 km downdip from the deformation front. Great thrust earthquakes on this section of the interface (with magnitudes of up to 9) have been estimated to occur at an average interval of about 590 yr (ref. 3). Further downdip there is a transition from fully locked behaviour to aseismic sliding (where high temperatures allow ductile deformation), with the deep aseismic zone exhibiting slow-slip thrust events. Here we show that there is a change in the reflection character on seismic images from a thin sharp reflection where the subduction thrust is inferred to be locked, to a broad reflection band at greater depth where aseismic slip is thought to be occurring. This change in reflection character may provide a new technique to map the landward extent of rupture in great earthquakes and improve the characterization of seismic hazards in subduction zones.

[1] We study in detail the two consecutive episodic tremor-and-slip (ETS) events that occurred in the northern Cascadia subduction zone during 2003 and 2004. For both sequences, the newly developed Source-Scanning Algorithm (SSA) is applied to seismic waveform data from a dense regional seismograph array to determine the precise locations and origin times of seismic tremors. In map view, the majority of the tremors occurred in a limited band bounded approximately by the surface projections of the 30-km and 50-km depth contours of the plate interface. The horizontal migration of tremor occurrence is from southeast to northwest with an average speed of 5 km/d. In cross section, tremors in both sequences span a depth range of over 40 km across the interface, with the majority occurring in the overriding continental crust. In particular, 50-55% of them are located within 2.5 km from the strong seismic reflector bands above the plate interface. The lack of vertical migration implies that a slow diffusion process in the vertical direction cannot be responsible for tremor occurrences. The source spectra of tremors clearly lack high-frequency content (>5 Hz) relative to local earthquakes. We propose two possible models to explain the relationship between slip and tremors. The first one regards ETS tremors as the manifestation of hydroseismogenic processes in response to the temporal strain variation associated with the episodic slip along the lower portion of the plate interface downdip from the locked zone. In the second model, tremors and slip are associated with the same process along the same structure in a distributed deformation zone across the plate interface. Neither model can be dismissed conclusively at this stage.

[1] This paper presents the first regional three-dimensional P wave velocity model for the Northern Cascadia Subduction Zone (SW British Columbia and NW Washington State) constructed through tomographic inversion of first-arrival traveltime data from active source experiments together with earthquake traveltime data recorded at permanent stations. The velocity model images the structure of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate, megathrust, and the fore-arc crust and upper mantle. Beneath southern Vancouver Island the megathrust above the Juan de Fuca plate is characterized by a broad zone (25-35 km depth) having relatively low velocities of 6.4-6.6 km/s. This relative low velocity zone coincides with the location of most of the episodic tremors recently mapped beneath Vancouver Island, and its low velocity may also partially reflect the presence of trapped fluids and sheared lower crustal rocks. The rocks of the Olympic Subduction Complex are inferred to deform aseismically as evidenced by the lack of earthquakes within the low-velocity rocks. The fore-arc upper mantle beneath the Strait of Georgia and Puget Sound is characterized by velocities of 7.2-7.6 km/s. Such low velocities represent regional serpentinization of the upper fore-arc mantle and provide evidence for slab dewatering and densification. Tertiary sedimentary basins in the Strait of Georgia and Puget Lowland imaged by the velocity model lie above the inferred region of slab dewatering and densification and may therefore partly result from a higher rate of slab sinking. In contrast, sedimentary basins in the Strait of Juan de Fuca lie in a synclinal depression in the Crescent Terrane. The correlation of in-slab earthquake hypocenters M > 4 with P wave velocities greater than 7.8 km/s at the hypocenters suggests that they originate near the oceanic Moho of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate.