Abstract. In this paper we examine pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by the total electron content (TEC) derived from a ground-based receiver of the Global Positioning System (GPS). A 15-day running median of the TEC and the associated inter-quartile range (IQR) are utilized as a reference for identifying abnormal signals during all of the 20 M > = 6.0 earthquakes in the Taiwan area from September 1999 to December 2002. Results show that the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies appear during 18:00-22:00 LT (LT=UT+8 h) within 5 days prior to 16 of the 20 M > = 6.0 earthquakes. This success rate of 80% (=16/20%) suggests that the GPS TEC is useful to register pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies appearing before large earthquakes.

The Cascadia subduction zone is thought to be capable of generating major earthquakes with moment magnitude as large as M(w) = 9 at an interval of several hundred years. The seismogenic portion of the plate interface is mostly offshore and is currently locked, as inferred from geodetic data. However, episodic surface displacements-in the direction opposite to the long-term deformation motions caused by relative plate convergence across a locked interface-are observed about every 14 months with an unusual tremor-like seismic signature. Here we show that these tremors are distributed over a depth range exceeding 40 km within a limited horizontal band. Many occurred within or close to the strong seismic reflectors above the plate interface where local earthquakes are absent, suggesting that the seismogenic process for tremors is fluid-related. The observed depth range implies that tremors could be associated with the variation of stress field induced by a transient slip along the deeper portion of the Cascadia interface or, alternatively, that episodic slip is more diffuse than originally suggested.

[1] We study in detail the two consecutive episodic tremor-and-slip (ETS) events that occurred in the northern Cascadia subduction zone during 2003 and 2004. For both sequences, the newly developed Source-Scanning Algorithm (SSA) is applied to seismic waveform data from a dense regional seismograph array to determine the precise locations and origin times of seismic tremors. In map view, the majority of the tremors occurred in a limited band bounded approximately by the surface projections of the 30-km and 50-km depth contours of the plate interface. The horizontal migration of tremor occurrence is from southeast to northwest with an average speed of 5 km/d. In cross section, tremors in both sequences span a depth range of over 40 km across the interface, with the majority occurring in the overriding continental crust. In particular, 50-55% of them are located within 2.5 km from the strong seismic reflector bands above the plate interface. The lack of vertical migration implies that a slow diffusion process in the vertical direction cannot be responsible for tremor occurrences. The source spectra of tremors clearly lack high-frequency content (>5 Hz) relative to local earthquakes. We propose two possible models to explain the relationship between slip and tremors. The first one regards ETS tremors as the manifestation of hydroseismogenic processes in response to the temporal strain variation associated with the episodic slip along the lower portion of the plate interface downdip from the locked zone. In the second model, tremors and slip are associated with the same process along the same structure in a distributed deformation zone across the plate interface. Neither model can be dismissed conclusively at this stage.

[1] We analyze continuous seismic and GPS records collected in the last decade (1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007) to establish the most comprehensive observational basis for northern Cascadia episodic tremor and slip (ETS) events. A simple ''ETS scale'' system, using a combination of a letter and a digit, is proposed to quantitatively characterize the spatial and temporal dimensions of ETS events. Clear correlation between GPS and tremor signals is observed for all A/B class episodes, but the GPS signature is less obvious for minor ones. Regular ETS recurrence can be established only for A/B class episodes in southern Vancouver Island. Halting and jumping are very common in ETS migration patterns, and along-strike migration can happen in both directions. A prominent tremor gap is observed in midisland around 49.5°N. This gap coincides with the epicenters of the only two large earthquakes beneath Vancouver Island. ETS tremors also tend to occur in places where the local seismicity is relatively sparse. The tremor depth distribution shows a peak in the 25-35 km range where strong seismic reflectors (i.e., the E layer) are documented. Detailed waveform analysis confirms the existence of shallow tremors above the currently interpreted plate interface. Our results suggest that a significant portion of the tremor activity and perhaps associated shearing are taking place along well-developed structures such as the E layer, while fewer tremor bursts are generated elsewhere in response to the induced stress variation throughout the source volume.