BackgroundAutosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading inheritable cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD); however, the natural course of disease progression is heterogeneous between patients. This study aimed to develop a natural history model of ADPKD that predicted progression rates and long-term outcomes in patients with differing baseline characteristics.MethodsThe ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) was developed using available patient-level data from the placebo arm of the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and its Outcomes Study (TEMPO 3:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00428948). Multivariable regression equations estimating annual rates of ADPKD progression, in terms of total kidney volume (TKV) and estimated glomerular filtration rate, formed the basis of the lifetime patient-level simulation model. Outputs of the ADPKD-OM were compared against external data sources to validate model accuracy and generalisability to other ADPKD patient populations, then used to predict long-term outcomes in a cohort matched to the overall TEMPO 3:4 study population.ResultsA cohort with baseline patient characteristics consistent with TEMPO 3:4 was predicted to reach ESRD at a mean age of 52 years. Most patients (85%) were predicted to reach ESRD by the age of 65 years, with many progressing to ESRD earlier in life (18, 36 and 56% by the age of 45, 50 and 55 years, respectively). Consistent with previous research and clinical opinion, analyses supported the selection of baseline TKV as a prognostic factor for ADPKD progression, and demonstrated its value as a strong predictor of future ESRD risk. Validation exercises and illustrative analyses confirmed the ability of the ADPKD-OM to accurately predict disease progression towards ESRD across a range of clinically-relevant patient profiles.ConclusionsThe ADPKD-OM represents a robust tool to predict natural disease progression and long-term outcomes in ADPKD patients, based on readily available and/or measurable clinical characteristics. In conjunction with clinical judgement, it has the potential to support decision-making in research and clinical practice.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12882-017-0804-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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BackgroundAutosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a genetic disorder characterised by progressive renal cyst formation leading to renal failure in the majority of patients. The likelihood and rate of ADPKD progression is difficult to predict and there is a clear need to identify prognostic indicators that could be used to anticipate ADPKD progression, to aid the management of patients in clinical practice.MethodsA systematic literature review was conducted to identify publications detailing the natural history of ADPKD, including diagnosis, prognosis and progression. Publications were identified and filtered, and data were extracted, based on a predefined research protocol.ResultsThe review identified 2799 journal articles and 444 conference abstracts; 254 articles, including observational studies, clinical trials and reviews, proceeded to data extraction. Disease progression was associated with a variety of prognostic indicators, most commonly age and total kidney volume (TKV). In the identified clinical trials, the absence of a consistent measure of disease progression led to variation in the primary endpoints used. Consequently, there was difficulty in consistently and effectively demonstrating and comparing the efficacy of investigational treatments across studies. More consistency was found in the observational studies, where disease progression was most frequently measured by TKV and glomerular filtration rate.ConclusionsThis systematic review identified age and TKV as the most commonly cited prognostic indicators in the published ADPKD literature. It is envisaged that this review may inform future research, trial design and predictive models of ADPKD natural history, helping to optimise patient care.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12882-015-0114-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

International and national guidelines on the treatment of chronic nonhypovolaemic hypotonic hyponatraemia differ; therefore, we have undertaken this systematic review and metaanalysis to investigate the efficacy and safety of interventions for the treatment of chronic nonhypovolaemic hypotonic hyponatraemia. Following registration of the review protocol with PROSPERO, systematic literature searches were conducted to identify randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials assessing any degree of fluid restriction or any drug treatment with the aim of increasing serum sodium concentration in patients with chronic nonhypovolaemic hypotonic hyponatraemia. Where appropriate, outcome data were synthesized in a meta-analysis. A total of 45 716 bibliographic records were identified from the searches and 18 trials (assessing conivaptan, lixivaptan, tolvaptan and satavaptan) met the eligibility criteria. Results suggest that all four vasopressin receptor agonists ("vaptans") significantly improve serum sodium concentration. Lixivaptan, satavaptan and tolvaptan were associated with greater rates of response versus placebo. There was no evidence of a difference between each of the vaptans compared with placebo for mortality, discontinuation and rates of hypernatraemia. No RCT evidence of treatments other than the vaptans for hyponatraemia such as oral urea, salt tablets, mannitol, loop diuretics demeclocycline or lithium was identified. Vaptans demonstrated superiority over placebo for outcomes relating to serum sodium correction. Few trials documented the potential benefit of vaptans on change in health-related quality of life as a result of treatment. There was also a lack of high-quality RCT evidence on the comparative efficacy of the vaptans and other treatment strategies for the treatment of chronic nonhypovolaemic hypotonic hyponatraemia.

Background The short-term efficacy of tolvaptan in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) has been demonstrated across several phase 3 trials, while the ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) represents a validated approach to predict natural disease progression over a lifetime horizon. This study describes the implementation of a tolvaptan treatment effect within the ADPKD-OM and explores the potential long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy in ADPKD. Methods The effect of tolvaptan on ADPKD progression was modelled by applying a constant treatment effect to the rate of renal function decline, consistent with that observed in the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease and Its Outcomes trial (TEMPO 3:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00428948 ). Predictions generated by the ADPKD-OM were compared against aggregated data from a subsequent extension trial (TEMPO 4:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01214421 ) and the Replicating Evidence of Preserved Renal Function an Investigation of Tolvaptan Safety Efficacy in ADPKD trial (REPRISE; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02160145 ). Following validation, an application of the ADPKD-OM sought to estimate the benefit of tolvaptan therapy on time to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), in a range of ADPKD populations. Results Model validation against TEMPO 4:4 and REPRISE demonstrated the accuracy and generalisability of the tolvaptan treatment effect applied within the ADPKD-OM. In simulated patients matched to the overall TEMPO 3:4 trial population at baseline, tolvaptan therapy was predicted to delay the mean age of ESRD onset by five years, compared to natural disease progression (57 years versus 52 years, respectively). In subgroup and sensitivity analyses, the estimated delay to ESRD was greatest among patients with CKD stage 1 at baseline (6.6 years), compared to CKD 2 and 3 subgroups (4.7 and 2.7 years, respectively); and ADPKD patients in Mayo subclasses 1C–1E. Conclusions This study demonstrated the potential for tolvaptan therapy to delay time to ESRD, particularly among patients with early-stage CKD and evidence of rapidly progressing disease. Data arising from this study highlight the value to be gained by early intervention and long-term treatment with tolvaptan, which may alleviate the economic and societal costs of providing care to patients who progress to ESRD.

BackgroundTolvaptan is the only vasopressin V2 receptor antagonist licensed by the European Medicines Agency for the treatment of hyponatraemia (HN) secondary to the syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone secretion (SIADH). We have investigated the cost-effectiveness of tolvaptan versus no active treatment (NAT) in adult patients within the licensed indication who have either failed to respond to fluid restriction or for whom the use of fluid restriction is not suitable, from the societal perspective in Sweden.MethodsA cost-utility analysis, considering a ‘general SIADH’ population and two subpopulations of patients (small-cell lung cancer [SCLC] and pneumonia) to broadly represent the complex clinical pathway of SIADH, was performed. A discrete event simulation was developed to model the progression of individuals through inpatient admissions over a 30-day time horizon (180 days for the SCLC cohort). Clinical data were derived from tolvaptan trials and observational data sources. All costs are given in Swedish kronor (SEK).ResultsIn the ‘general SIADH’ population, tolvaptan was associated with reduced costs (SEK 5,779 per patient [€624]) and increased quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (0.0019) compared with NAT and was therefore the dominant treatment strategy. Tolvaptan was also associated with reduced costs and increased QALYs in the SCLC and pneumonia subpopulations. The most influential variables in our analysis were reduction in hospital length of stay, duration of treatment and long term treatment with tolvaptan in SCLC patients.ConclusionsTolvaptan represents a cost-effective treatment option in Sweden for hospitalised patients with HN secondary to SIADH who have either failed to respond to or are unsuitable for fluid restriction.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12902-016-0104-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

This study showed that HN and/or SIADH negatively impact patient outcomes and healthcare resources related to hospital stay irrespective of the underlying cause. The impact of HN is not confined to the initial hospitalisation, as re-admission rates are also affected.

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