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[1] We detect and precisely locate over 9500 aftershocks that occurred in the Yuha Desert region during a 2 month period following the 4 April 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah (EMC) earthquake. Events are relocated using a series of absolute and relative relocation procedures that include Hypoinverse, Velest, and hypoDD. Location errors are reduced to 40 m horizontally and 120 m vertically. Aftershock locations reveal a complex pattern of faulting with en echelon fault segments trending toward the northwest, approximately parallel to the North American-Pacific plate boundary and en echelon, conjugate features trending to the northeast. The relocated seismicity is highly correlated with published surface mapping of faults that experienced triggered surface slip in response to the EMC main shock. Aftershocks occurred between 2 km and 11 km depths, consistent with previous studies of seismogenic thickness in the region. Three-dimensional analysis reveals individual and intersecting fault planes that are limited in their along-strike length. These fault planes remain distinct structures at depth, indicative of conjugate faulting, and do not appear to coalesce onto a throughgoing fault segment. We observe a complex spatiotemporal migration of aftershocks, with seismicity that jumps between individual fault segments that are active for only a few days to weeks. Aftershock rates are roughly consistent with the expected earthquake production rates of Dieterich (1994). The conjugate pattern of faulting and nonuniform aftershock migration patterns suggest that strain in the Yuha Desert is being accommodated in a complex manner.

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Fault zone structure is well known to exert strong controls on earthquake properties including coseismic slip distribution, rupture propagation direction, and hypocenter location. It has also been well established that the principal slip surface, which accommodates the majority of earthquake displacement, exhibits roughness at all scales following self-affine fractal distributions.Here we explore the relationship between fault roughness and specific earthquake properties including coseismic slip distribution and hypocenter location based on long-term simulations of earthquake catalogs on fractally rough faults. We begin by using the von Kármán autocorrelation function to procedurally generate single faults with different fractal roughness properties, which we place in a homogeneous elastic solid and apply pure right-lateral shear at a constant back slip rate with the earthquake simulator RSQSim. Running the simulations for 10,000 years each, we generate millions of earthquakes including thousands of events with Mw > 6.0, which rupture the surface. We show that the patterns of surface rupture in these large events follow self-affine fractal distributions with consistent fractal dimension related distinctly to the fractal dimension of the fault. In addition, the hypocenters of these large events occur in very specific predictable locations where the longest wavelength structure produces a stress asperity (i.e., restraining bend). The resulting patterns can explain many features observed on real fault systems, including clustered hypocenter locations, spatially variable coseismic slip distributions, and characteristic slip recurrence behavior. These results demonstrate a quantitative link between a directly measurable fault property-roughness-and the properties of future earthquakes.

On 15 June 2010, a Mw5.7 earthquake occurred near Ocotillo, California, in the Yuha Desert. This event was the largest aftershock of the 4 April 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in this region. The EMC mainshock and subsequent Ocotillo aftershock provide an opportunity to test the Coulomb failure hypothesis (CFS). We explore the spatiotemporal correlation between seismicity rate changes and regions of positive and negative CFS change imparted by the Ocotillo event. Based on simple CFS calculations we divide the Yuha Desert into three subregions, one triggering zone and two stress shadow zones. We find the nominal triggering zone displays immediate triggering, one stress shadowed region experiences immediate quiescence, and the other nominal stress shadow undergoes an immediate rate increase followed by a delayed shutdown. We quantitatively model the spatiotemporal variation of earthquake rates by combining calculations of CFS change with the rate‐state earthquake rate formulation of Dieterich (1994), assuming that each subregion contains a mixture of nucleation sources that experienced a CFS change of differing signs. Our modeling reproduces the observations, including the observed delay in the stress shadow effect in the third region following the Ocotillo aftershock. The delayed shadow effect occurs because of intrinsic differences in the amplitude of the rate response to positive and negative stress changes and the time constants for return to background rates for the two populations. We find that rate‐state models of time‐dependent earthquake rates are in good agreement with the observed rates and thus explain the complex spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity.

It is well established that subsurface injection of fluids increases pore fluid pressures that may lead to shear failure along a preexisting fault surface. Concern among oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon storage operators has risen dramatically over the past decade due to the increase in the number and magnitude of induced earthquakes. Efforts to mitigate the risk associated with injection‐induced earthquakes include modeling of the interaction between fluids and earthquake faults. Here we investigate this relationship with simulations that couple a geomechanical reservoir model and RSQSim, a physics‐based earthquake simulator. RSQSim employs rate‐ and state‐dependent friction (RSF) that enables the investigation of the time‐dependent nature of earthquake sequences. We explore the effect of two RSF parameters and normal stress on the spatiotemporal characteristics of injection‐induced seismicity. We perform >200 simulations to systematically investigate the effect of these model components on the evolution of induced seismicity sequences and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of our synthetic catalogs to observations of induced earthquakes. We find that the RSF parameters control the ability of seismicity to migrate away from the injection well, the total number and maximum magnitude of induced events. Additionally, the RSF parameters control the occurrence/absence of premonitory events. Lastly, we find that earthquake stress drops can be modulated by the normal stress and/or the RSF parameters. Insight gained from this study can aid in further development of models that address best practice protocols for injection operations, site‐specific models of injection‐induced earthquakes, and probabilistic hazard and risk assessments.

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