Abstract.A new long-term data record of Fram Strait sea ice area export from 1935 to 2014 is developed using a combination of satellite radar images and station observations of surface pressure across Fram Strait. This data record shows that the long-term annual mean export is about 880 000 km 2 , representing 10 % of the sea-ice-covered area inside the basin. The time series has large interannual and multi-decadal variability but no long-term trend. However, during the last decades, the amount of ice exported has increased, with several years having annual ice exports that exceeded 1 million km 2 . This increase is a result of faster southward ice drift speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing surface pressure over Greenland. Evaluating the trend onwards from 1979 reveals an increase in annual ice export of about +6 % per decade, with spring and summer showing larger changes in ice export (+11 % per decade) compared to autumn and winter (+2.6 % per decade). Increased ice export during winter will generally result in new ice growth and contributes to thinning inside the Arctic Basin. Increased ice export during summer or spring will, in contrast, contribute directly to open water further north and a reduced summer sea ice extent through the ice-albedo feedback. Relatively low spring and summer export from 1950 to 1970 is thus consistent with a higher mid-September sea ice extent for these years. Our results are not sensitive to long-term change in Fram Strait sea ice concentration. We find a general moderate influence between export anomalies and the following September sea ice extent, explaining 18 % of the variance between 1935 and 2014, but with higher values since 2004.

Abstract. Arctic sea ice area has been decreasing for the past two decades. Apart from melting, the southward drift through Fram Strait is the main ice loss mechanism. We present high resolution sea ice drift data across 79 • N from 2004 to 2010. Ice drift has been derived from radar satellite data and corresponds well with variability in local geostrophic wind. The underlying East Greenland current contributes with a constant southward speed close to 5 cm s −1 , and drives around a third of the ice export. We use geostrophic winds derived from reanalysis data to calculate the Fram Strait ice area export back to 1957, finding that the sea ice area export recently is about 25 % larger than during the 1960's. The increase in ice export occurred mostly during winter and is directly connected to higher southward ice drift velocities, due to stronger geostrophic winds. The increase in ice drift is large enough to counteract a decrease in ice concentration of the exported sea ice. Using storm tracking we link changes in geostrophic winds to more intense Nordic Sea low pressure systems. Annual sea ice area export likely has a significant influence on the summer sea ice variability and we find low values in the 1960's, the late 1980's and 1990's, and particularly high values during 2005-2008. The study highlights the possible role of variability in ice export as an explanatory factor for understanding the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice during the last decades.

Abstract. The Arctic Basin exports between 600,000 and 1 million km2 of it's sea ice cover southwards through Fram Strait each year, or about 10 % of the sea-ice covered area inside the basin. During winter, ice export results in growth of new and relatively thin ice inside the basin, while during summer or spring, export contributes directly to open water further north that enhances the ice-albedo feedback during summer. A new updated time series from 1935 to 2014 of Fram Strait sea ice area export shows that the long-term annual mean export is about 880,000 km2, with large inter-annual and multidecadal variability, and no long-term trend over the past 80 years. Nevertheless, the last decade has witnessed increased ice export, with several years having annual ice export that exceed 1 million km2. Evaluating the trend onwards from 1979, when satellite based sea ice coverage became more readily available, reveals an increase in annual export of about +6 % per decade. The observed increase is caused by higher southward ice drift speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing surface pressure over Greenland. Spring and summer area export increased more (+11 % per decade) than in autumn and winter (+2.6 % per decade). Contrary to the last decade, the 1950–1970 period had relatively low export during spring and summer, and consistently mid-September sea ice extent was higher during these decades than both before and afterwards. We thus find that export anomalies during spring have a clear influence on the following September sea ice extent in general, and that for the recent decade, the export may be partially responsible for the accelerating decline in Arctic sea ice extent.

An algorithm has been developed for estimating total and multiyear sea ice concentration from passive microwave and surface air temperature measurements. The algorithm was made for use with Nimbus 7 scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) data. It is based on radiation physics and may thus easily be modified to suit other passive microwave instruments. A comparison between Nimbus 7 SMMR and aircraft microwave measurements indicates that estimates of total ice concentration are accurate to ±3% and those of multiyear ice concentration to ±10%. These accuracies are not valid during the melt season when the snow on the ice is wet. For the first time such a comparison of independent estimates has been performed to validate the capability of measuring sea ice coverage from space. The ability of the SMMR to follow moving patches of multiyear ice and of rain/wet snow areas has been demonstrated. From the concentration estimates the sharpness of the ice edge can be estimated. The need for accurate concentration estimates for reliable heat budget estimates in the Arctic is also discussed.

Sea ice is defined as ice which is formed as a result of freezing of seawater. Sea ice occurs at the surface of the ocean in areas where the surface temperature is cooled to the freezing point, which is about −1.8°C for sea water with a salinity of about 35 parts per thousand. Ice formed in lakes and rivers and icebergs coming from glaciers and ice sheets are not defined as sea ice. Monitoring by remote sensing is defined as any measurement technique which can be used to observe sea ice repeatedly by instruments on board earth observation satellites. Monitoring also includes the process of making observational data available for users a short time after the observations have been obtained (i.e. a few hours). Remote sensing of ice can also be done with aircraft, submarines and other vehicles, but these techniques are not discussed in this article.

[1] The present and future state of the Arctic sea ice cover is explored using new observations and a coupled one dimensional air -sea -ice model. Updated satellite observations of Fram Strait ice-area export show an increase over the last four years, with $37% increase in winter 07-08. Atmospheric poleward energy flux declined since 1990, but advection of oceanic heat has recently increased. Simulations show that the ice area export is a stronger driver of thinning than the estimated ocean heat fluxes of 40 TW. Increased ocean heat transport will raise primarily Atlantic layer temperature. The 'present 2007' state of the Arctic ice could be a stable state given the recent high ice area export, but if ocean heat advection and ice export decrease, the ice cover will recover. A 2*CO 2 scenario with export and oceanic heat flux remaining strong, forecasts a summer Arctic open ocean area of 95% around 2050. Citation: Smedsrud, L. H., A. Sorteberg, and K.Kloster (2008), Recent and future changes of the Arctic sea-ice cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20503,

Abstract. Sea ice features and processes in the Barents

Abstract. The Arctic Basin exports ~ 10 % of the sea ice area southwards annually through Fram Strait. A larger than normal export decreases the remaining mean thickness and ice area. A new updated timeseries from 1979–2013 of Fram Strait sea ice area export shows an overall increase until today, and that more than 1 million km2 has been exported annually in recent years. The new timeseries has been constructed from high resolution radar satellite imagery of sea ice drift across 79° N from 2004–2013, regressed on the observed cross-strait surface pressure difference, and shows an increasing trend of 7 % per decade. The trend is caused by higher southward ice drift speeds due to stronger southward geostrophic winds, largely explained by increasing surface pressure on Greenland. Spring and summer area export increases more (~ 14 % per decade) than in autumn and winter, and these export anomalies have a large influence on the following September mean ice extent.