Summary Aim To determine neuropsychological tests likely to predict cognitive decline. Methods A sample of nonconverters (n = 106) was compared with those who declined in cognitive status (n = 24). Significant univariate logistic regression prediction models were used to create multivariate logistic regression models to predict decline based on initial neuropsychological testing. Results Rey–Osterrieth Complex Figure Test (RCFT) Retention predicted conversion to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) while baseline Buschke Delay predicted conversion to Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Due to group sample size differences, additional analyses were conducted using a subsample of demographically matched nonconverters. Analyses indicated RCFT Retention predicted conversion to MCI and AD, and Buschke Delay predicted conversion to AD. Conclusion Results suggest RCFT Retention and Buschke Delay may be useful in predicting cognitive decline.

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