Wind energy is one of the most important ways to implement green energy in Lithuania. The development of wind energy infrastructure by state funding is directly related to wind energy resources. Changes in wind energy resources induced by ongoing climate change have not been well analyzed either in Lithuania or in Europe or worldwide. This article analyses data taken from long-term wind observations and IPCC projections. It was found that during the last decades (1980–2019), the wind speed in Lithuania decreased up to 0.69 m/s in the coastal region and up to 0.24 m/s in the central part of Lithuania. The decrease in wind speed caused a decrease in generated energy by 15.6 % and 17.8 % in the coastal and the central parts of Lithuania. Analysis of wind speed projections for the period 2010–2100, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, has shown that the average annual wind speed would decrease by 7.3 % in Lithuanian’s coastal region and 8.8 % the central region by the end of the century. The change in wind speed will cause up to a 25 % reduction in wind potential. As the average lifetime of wind turbines is about 25 years, the amount of electricity generated during this period will be up to 20 % lower than planned at the design stage.
Developing wind energy in Lithuania is one of the most important ways to achieve green energy goals. Observational data show that the decline in wind speeds in the region may pose challenges for wind energy development. This study analyzed the long-term variation of the observed 2006–2020 and projected 2006–2100 near-surface wind speed at the height of 10 m over Lithuanian territory using data of three models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). A slight decrease in wind speeds was found in the whole territory of Lithuania for the projected wind speed data of three global circulation models for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. It was found that the most favorable scenario for wind energy production is RCP2.6, and the most unfavorable is the RCP4.5 scenario under which the decrease in wind speed may reach 12%. At the Baltic Sea coastal region, the decline was smaller than in the country’s inner regions by the end of the century. The highest reduction in speed is characteristic of the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. Although the analysis of wind speeds projected by global circulation models (GCM) confirms the downward trends in wind speeds found in the observational data, the projected changes in wind speeds are too small to significantly impact the development of wind farms in Lithuania.
Harnessing wind energy in Lithuania is one of the most important ways to implement climate mitigation measures. This study aims to assess whether it is feasible to implement an energy greening plan in Lithuania in the 21st century, hypothetically by using only wind farms, where the entire permitted area is developed with them. The wind turbine chosen for the study is a 3 MW wind turbine, installed at a height of 100 m. Wind speeds were estimated using the most up-to-date generation of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate scenario projections. The most likely climate model, SSP2-4.5, shows that the wind speed in Lithuania is more likely to decrease slightly over the 21st century. The decrease could be as high as 3% in the coastal region, while in the eastern part of the country, which is the furthest from the sea, the decrease will likely be around 1.5%. Analysis of the projected data shows that the number of days with wind speeds below the cut-in speed is decreasing, while the number of days with wind speeds higher than the cut-off speed is increasing slightly. However, the number of days on which the operating conditions of the wind farm are met has changed only slightly. The results show that the potential maximum wind power generation exceeds Lithuania's renewable energy needs by at least three times, suggesting that the development of onshore wind farms in Lithuania can help to achieve the energy greening plans.
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