Impact of Climate Change on Wind Potential in Lithuania Territory

Abstract

Wind energy is one of the most important ways to implement green energy in Lithuania. The development of wind energy infrastructure by state funding is directly related to wind energy resources. Changes in wind energy resources induced by ongoing climate change have not been well analyzed either in Lithuania or in Europe or worldwide. This article analyses data taken from long-term wind observations and IPCC projections. It was found that during the last decades (1980–2019), the wind speed in Lithuania decreased up to 0.69 m/s in the coastal region and up to 0.24 m/s in the central part of Lithuania. The decrease in wind speed caused a decrease in generated energy by 15.6 % and 17.8 % in the coastal and the central parts of Lithuania. Analysis of wind speed projections for the period 2010–2100, according to the RCP4.5 scenario, has shown that the average annual wind speed would decrease by 7.3 % in Lithuanian’s coastal region and 8.8 % the central region by the end of the century. The change in wind speed will cause up to a 25 % reduction in wind potential. As the average lifetime of wind turbines is about 25 years, the amount of electricity generated during this period will be up to 20 % lower than planned at the design stage.

Reaching the Heights: A Desk Study on Exploring Opportunities and Challenges for Lithuania’s Tallest Wind Turbine

“…At a height of 10 m, the average speed varies, with a value of 4.58 m/s. However, at an altitude of 200 m above sea level, the speed shows considerable disparity, with the slowest reported average speed being 7.63 m/s and the fastest reaching 10.5 m/s [37]. Overall, this insightful data aids in pinpointing potential locations that align with the highest wind conditions for optimal energy generation.…”

“…However, despite these constraints, the search for a potential site continues. The weather data obtained from the Global Wind Atlas [37,70] presents a valuable resource, revealing a consistent pattern of mild to moderate winds across the country (see Figure 3). Within a short coastal zone extending 20-25 km, the Baltic Sea's influence on wind patterns is evident [37].…”

“…The weather data obtained from the Global Wind Atlas [37,70] presents a valuable resource, revealing a consistent pattern of mild to moderate winds across the country (see Figure 3). Within a short coastal zone extending 20-25 km, the Baltic Sea's influence on wind patterns is evident [37]. Wind speed steadily decreases as one moves away from the sea due to greater surface roughness.…”

“…Wind energy is not only a cost-effective and ecologically good choice, but it has already made a significant contribution, with 76 wind farms generating close to 20 percent of the nation's electricity consumption in 2022 [35]. Aside from its environmental impact, the wind energy sector contributes to economic development by creating jobs and circulating millions into local economies, highlighting its critical position in Lithuania's sustainable energy future [36,37].…”

Development of the logical system for forecasting wind characteristics in the urban conditions

“…In [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] installations of wind turbines of various types in the urban environment are considered, however, only forecasts from weather stations were taken into account. The authors of [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20] performed a multi-criteria analysis of the sustainable development of wind energy and developed a system that can be used to monitor and evaluate the development of wind energy in the country, but only for Latvian conditions. The authors [6] solved the problem of calculating wind indicators in urban conditions, showing the principle of operation of vertical wind turbines and by what criteria the initial data and measurements of the blades and axes of wind turbines are taken, but without taking into account the program-logical part.…”