This paper proposes a novel short-term wind power forecasting approach by mining the bad data of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Today's short-term wind power forecast (WPF) highly depends on the NWP, which contributes the most in the WPF error. This paper first introduces a bad data analyzer to fully study the relationship between the WPF error with several new extracted features from the raw NWP. Second, a hierarchical structure is proposed, which is composed of a K-means clustering-based bad data detection module and a neural network (NN)-based forecasting module. In the NN module, the WPF is fully adjusted based on the output of the bad data analyzer. Simulations are performed comparing with two other different methods. It proves that the proposed approach can improve the short-term wind power forecasting by effectively identifying and adjusting the errors from NWP.Index Terms-Artificial neural network, data adjustment, feature selection, numerical weather prediction, wind power forecast error.
Microgrid as an important part of smart grid comprises distributed generators (DGs), adjustable loads, energy storage systems (ESSs) and control units. It can be operated either connected with the external system or islanded with the support of ESSs. While the daily output of DGs strongly depends on the temporal distribution of natural resources such as wind and solar, unregulated electric vehicle (EV) charging demand will deteriorate the unbalance between the daily load curve and generation curve. In this paper, a statistic model is presented to describe daily EV charging/discharging behaviors considering the randomness of the initial state of charge (SOC) of EV batteries. The optimization problem is proposed to obtain the economic operation for the microgrid based on this model. In dayahead scheduling, with the estimated power generation and load demand, the optimal charging/discharging scheduling of EVs during 24 h is achieved by serial quadratic programming. With the optimal charging/discharging scheduling of EVs, the daily load curve can better track the generation curve. The network loss in grid-connected operation mode and required ESS capacity in islanded operation mode are both decreased.
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