The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments--backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations--are required to establish firmly the role of the Agulhas system in a warming climate.
The presence of an upwelling “dome”‐like feature in the thermocline depth at 55°E–65°E, 5°S–12°S in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) has been suggested in earlier work. However, the position, shape, and forcing mechanisms behind this upwelling region are not well understood. In this study, a regional ocean model is applied to the tropical South Indian Ocean. Experiments with monthly climatological winds from both Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) and the National Centers for Environmental Protection (NCEP) reanalyses are performed. An annual and semiannual signal is present in the depth of the model thermocline. The model results suggest that SWTIO upwelling is focused in the west during austral spring and summer and forms a zonally elongated ridge during austral autumn and winter, termed here the Seychelles‐Chagos thermocline ridge. Although the large‐scale wind stress curl plays a major role in maintaining this upwelling ridge, local divergence between the southeasterly trade winds and the monsoon westerlies are shown to impact this region, as well as remote forcing through the arrival of both upwelling and downwelling annual Rossby waves from the eastern Indian Ocean.
A global ocean model (ORCA2) forced with 50 yr of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis winds and heat fluxes has been used to investigate the evolution and forcing of interannual dipolelike sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the South Indian and South Atlantic Oceans. Although such patterns may also exist at times in only one of these basins and not the other, only events where there are coherent signals in both basins during the austral summer have been chosen for study in this paper. A positive (negative) event occurs when there is a significant warm (cool) SST anomaly evident in the southwest of both the South Indian and South Atlantic Oceans and a cool (warm) anomaly in the eastern subtropics. The large-scale forcing of these events appears to consist of a coherent modulation of the wavenumber-3 or -4 pattern in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation such that the semipermanent subtropical anticyclone in each basin is shifted from its summer mean position and its strength is modulated. A relationship to the Antarctic Oscillation is also apparent, and seems to strengthen after the mid-1970s. The modulated subtropical anticyclones lead to changes in the tropical easterlies and midlatitude westerlies in the South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans that result in anomalies in latent heat fluxes, upwelling, and Ekman heat transports, all of which contribute to the SST variability. In addition, there are significant modulations to the strong Rossby wave signals in the South Indian Ocean. The results of this study confirm the ability of the ORCA2 model to represent these dipole patterns and indicate connections between large-scale modulations of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric circulation and coevolving SST variability in the South Atlantic and South Indian Oceans.
The South‐East Madagascar Bloom occurs in an oligotrophic region of the southwest Indian Ocean. Phase locked to austral summer, this sporadic feature exhibits substantial temporal and spatial variability. Several studies, with different hypotheses, have focused on the initiation mechanism triggering the bloom, but none has been as yet clearly substantiated. With 19 years of ocean color data set available as well as in situ measurements (Argo profiles), the time is ripe to review this feature. The bloom is characterized in a novel manner, and a new bloom index is suggested, yielding 11 bloom years, including 3 major bloom years (1999, 2006, and 2008). Spatially, the bloom varies from a mean structure (22–32°S; 50–70°E) both zonally and meridionally. A colocation analysis of Argo profiles and chlorophyll‐a data revealed a bloom occurrence in a shallow‐stratified layer, with low‐salinity water in the surface layers. Additionally, a quantitative assessment of the previous hypotheses is performed and bloom occurrence is found to coincide with La Niña events and reduced upwelling intensity south of Madagascar. A stronger South‐East Madagascar Current during La Niña may support a detachment of the current from the coasts, dampening the upwelling south of Madagascar, and feeding low‐salinity waters into the Madagascar Basin, hence increasing stratification. Along with abundance of light, these provide the right conditions for a nitrogen‐fixing cyanobacterial phytoplankton bloom onset.
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