The most unusual, and thus irreplaceable, functions performed by species in three different species-rich ecosystems are fulfilled by only the rare species in these ecosystems.

While there is a clear demand for scenarios that provide alternative states in biodiversity with respect to future emissions, a thorough analysis and communication of the associated uncertainties is still missing. Here, we modelled the global distribution of ~11,500 amphibian, bird and mammal species and project their climatic suitability into the time horizon 2050 and 2070, while varying the input data used. By this, we explore the uncertainties originating from selecting species distribution models (SDMs), dispersal strategies, global circulation models (GCMs), and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We demonstrate the overwhelming influence of SDMs and RCPs on future biodiversity projections, followed by dispersal strategies and GCMs. The relative importance of each component varies in space but also with the selected sensitivity metrics and with species’ range size. Overall, this means using multiple SDMs, RCPs, dispersal assumptions and GCMs is a necessity in any biodiversity scenario assessment, to explicitly report associated uncertainties.

During the last decades, describing, analysing and understanding the phylogenetic structure of species assemblages has been a central theme in both community ecology and macro-ecology. Among the wide variety of phylogenetic structure metrics, three have been predominant in the literature: Faith's phylogenetic diversity (PD), which represents the sum of the branch lengths of the phylogenetic tree linking all species of a particular assemblage, the mean pairwise distance between all species in an assemblage (MPD) and the pairwise distance between the closest relatives in an assemblage (MNTD). Comparisons between studies using one or several of these metrics are difficult because there has been no comprehensive evaluation of the phylogenetic properties each metric captures. In particular it is unknown how PD relates to MDP and MNTD. Consequently, it is possible that apparently opposing patterns in different studies might simply reflect differences in metric properties. Here, we aim to fill this gap by comparing these metrics using simulations and empirical data. We first used simulation experiments to test the influence of community structure and size on the mismatch between metrics whilst varying the shape and size of the phylogenetic tree of the species pool. Second we investigated the mismatch between metrics for two empirical datasets (gut microbes and global carnivoran assemblages). We show that MNTD and PD provide similar information on phylogenetic structure, and respond similarly to variation in species richness and assemblage structure. However, MPD demonstrate a very different behaviour, and is highly sensitive to deep branching structure. We suggest that by combining complementary metrics that are sensitive to processes operating at different phylogenetic depths (i.e. MPD and MNTD or PD) we can obtain a better understanding of assemblage structure.

The fact that PD/FD reach faster their maximal value than SR may suggest that the two former facets might be less vulnerable to habitat loss than the latter. While this point is expected, it is the first time that it is quantified at global scale and should have important consequences in conservation. Incorporating species relative coverage into the delineation of multifaceted hotspots of diversity lead to weak congruence between SR, PD and FD hotspots. This means that maximizing species number may fail at preserving those nodes (in the phylogenetic or functional tree) that are relatively abundant in the ecoregion. As a consequence it may be of prime importance to adopt a multifaceted biodiversity perspective to inform conservation strategies at global scale.

Summary 1.Assembly of grassland communities has long been scrutinized through the lens of functional diversity. Studies generally point to an overwhelming influence of climate on observed patterns of functional diversity, despite experimental evidence demonstrating the importance of biotic interactions. We postulate that this is because most observational studies neglect both scale dependencies of assembly processes and phenotypic variation between individuals. Here, we test for changes in the importance of abiotic filtering and biotic interactions along a stress gradient by explicitly accounting for different scales. In addition to quantifying intraspecific trait variability (ITV), we also vary the two components of spatial scale, including grain (i.e. community size) and extent (i.e. the geographical area that defines the species pool). 2.We sampled 20 grassland communities in ten sites distributed along a 975-m elevation gradient. At each site, we measured seven functional traits for a total of 2020 individuals at different spatial grains. We related community functional diversity metrics to the main environmental gradient of our study area, growing season length (GSL), and assessed the dependence of these relationships on spatial grain, spatial extent and ITV.3. At large spatial grain and extent, the imprint of environmental filtering on functional diversity became more important with increasing stress (i.e. functional diversity decreased with shorter GSL). At small spatial grain and extent, we found a convex relationship between functional diversity and GSL congruent with the hypothesis that competition is dominant at low-stress levels while facilitative interactions are dominant at high-stress levels (i.e. high functional diversity at both extremes of the stress gradient). Importantly, the effect of intraspecific variability on assembly rules was noticeable only at small spatial grain and extent.4. Synthesis. Our study reveals how the combination of abiotic stress and biotic interactions shapes the functional diversity of alpine grasslands at different spatial scales, and highlights the importance of phenotype variation between individuals for community assembly processes at fine spatial scale. Our results suggest that studies analysing trait-based assembly rules but ignoring ITV and focusing on a single spatial scale are likely to miss essential features of community diversity patterns.

Aim-We investigate patterns of phylogenetic diversity in relation to species diversity for European birds, mammals and amphibians, to evaluate their congruence and highlight areas of particular evolutionary history. We estimate the extent to which the European network of protected areas (PAs) network retains interesting evolutionary history areas for the three groups separately and simultaneously. Location-EuropeMethods-Phylogenetic (QE PD ) and species diversity (SD) were estimated using the Rao's quadratic entropy at 10′ resolution. We determined the regional relationship between QE PD and SD for each taxa with a spatial regression model and used the tails of the residuals (QE RES ) distribution to identify areas of higher and lower QE PD than predicted. Spatial congruence of biodiversity between groups was assessed with Pearson's correlation. A simple classification scheme allowed building a convergence map where a convergent pixel equalled to a QE RES value of the same sign for the 3 groups. This convergence map was overlaid to the current PAs network to estimate the level of protection in convergent pixels and compared it to a null expectation built on 1000 randomization of PAs over the landscape.Results-QE RES patterns across vertebrates show a strong spatial mismatch highlighting different evolutionary histories. Convergent areas represent only 2.7% of the Western Palearctic, with only 8.4% of these areas being covered by the current PAs network while a random distribution would retain 10.4% of them. QE RES are unequally represented within PAs: areas with higher QE PD than predicted are better covered than expected, while low QE PD areas are undersampled.Corresponding author: Laure Zupan; laure.zupan@gmail.com. Europe PMC Funders Group

Aim Seasonal bird migration is one of the most fascinating global ecological phenomena. Yet, the biogeographic scenarios and climatic drivers that led single species or entire lineages to evolve seasonal migration between disjunct breeding and wintering ranges remain unclear. Based on distribution and phylogenetic data for all birds worldwide, we explored the biogeographic and climatic context of the evolutionary emergence of seasonal geographic migration in birds. Location Global. Taxon The Aves class (9,819 species). Methods We used the worldwide phylogeny of all birds, with a new backbone tree, to test the link between birds’ migration distance (short, variable, long) and strategy (resident, mixed, strict migrant) with four different metrics depicting species’ thermal niches in their breeding and wintering ranges. We also performed ancestral state reconstructions for the main migratory orders to reconstruct past events of appearance and loss of migration behaviour, and past biogeographic scenarios that led to the emergence of seasonal geographic migration. Results Migratory species generally experience warmer climates in their wintering range compared to their breeding one, although notable exceptions exist. This thermal niche change due to migration was found to be much larger for species travelling large distances. We also found that geographic migration emerged at different time periods through varied biogeographic paths (i.e. both from temperate and tropical ancestors) and that migration behaviour was likely ancestral to Passeriformes, with several subsequent episodes of loss of migration behaviour. Main conclusions We report an evolutionary correlation between long‐distance migration and the tendency of birds to seek warmer climates during their non‐breeding period, compared to short‐distance migrants. Migration behaviour was likely ancestral to Passeriformes, and migratory lineages in general seem to have often adapted to novel ecological opportunities by returning to a resident state. Our results provide the first large‐scale study of biogeographic and climatic origins of bird migration worldwide.

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