This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to + 9 degrees C) and precipitation (-50 to + 50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model developmen

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Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socioeconomic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the "According to Our Current Knowledge" (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO 2 ] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO 2 ] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO 2 ] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options

Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The estimated correlations between comfort and THIavg values of 70 (which represents the upper end of the THIavg scale in BEL-LUX) were lower for BEL-LUX (0.70-0.80) than for SPA (0.83-0.85). Overall, animals producing in the more temperate climates and semi-extensive grazing systems of BEL and LUX showed HS at lower heat loads and more re-ranking across the THI scale than animals producing in the warmer climate and intensive indoor system of SPA.

Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.

Full-waveform inversions were applied to retrieve surface, two-layered and continuous soil moisture profiles from ground penetrating radar (GPR) data acquired in an 11-ha agricultural field situated in the loess belt area in central Belgium. The radar system consisted of a vector network analyzer combined with an off-ground horn antenna operating in the frequency range 200-2000 MHz. The GPR system was computer controlled and synchronized with a differential GPS for real-time data acquisition. Several inversion strategies were also tested using numerical experiments, which in particular demonstrated the potentiality to reconstruct simplified two-layered configurations from more complex, continuous dielectric profiles as prevalent in the environment. The surface soil moisture map obtained assuming a onelayered model showed a global moisture pattern mainly explained by the topography while local moisture patterns indicate a line effect. Two-layered and profile inversions provided consistent estimates with respect to each other and field observations, showing significant moisture increases with depth. However, some discrepancies were observed between the measured and modeled GPR data in the higher frequency ranges, mainly due to surface roughness effects which are not accounted for. The proposed GPR method and inversion strategies show great promise for high-resolution, realtime mapping of soil moisture at the field scale. * julien.minet@uclouvain.be

Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is an efficient method for soil moisture mapping at the field scale, bridging the scale gap between small-scale invasive sensors and large-scale remote sensing instruments. Nevertheless, commonly-used GPR approaches for soil moisture characterization suffer from several limitations and the determination of the uncertainties in GPR soil moisture sensing has been poorly addressed. Herein, we used an advanced proximal GPR method based on full-waveform inversion of ultra-wideband radar data for mapping soil moisture and uncertainties in the soil moisture maps were evaluated by three different methods. First, GPRderived soil moisture uncertainties were computed from the GPR data inversion, according to measurements and modeling errors and to the sensitivity of the electromagnetic model to soil moisture. Second, the reproducibility of the soil moisture mapping was evaluated. Third, GPR-derived soil moisture was compared with ground-truth measurements (soil core sampling). The proposed GPR method appeared to be highly precise and accurate, with spatially averaged GPR inversion uncertainty of 0. and an uncertainty of 0.0233 m 3 m −3 when compared with ground-truth measurements. These uncertainties were mapped and appeared to be related to some local model inadequacies and to small-scale variability of soil moisture. In a soil moisture mapping framework, the interpolation was found to be the determinant source of the observed uncertainties. The proposed GPR method was proven to be largely reliable in terms of accuracy and precision and appeared to be highly efficient for soil moisture * julien.minet@uclouvain.be mapping at the field scale.

29This study presents results from a major grassland model intercomparison exercise, and 30 highlights the main challenges faced in the implementation of a multi-model ensemble 31 prediction system in grasslands. Nine, independently developed simulation models linking 32 climate, soil, vegetation and management to grassland biogeochemical cycles and production 33 were compared in a simulation of soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature (