The book-to-market (BM) ratio differs across stocks because to
differences in expected cashflows and expected returns. The central
hypothesis is that the evolution of BM, in terms of past changes in price
and book equity, contains information about future cashflows that can be
used to improve estimates of expected returns. This article used a database
of Economática to extract a sample of non-financial companies shares listed
on BOVESPA and test this hypothesis. The estimated regressions were
performed monthly during the period July 1996 to June 2008. Both for large
and mid caps as for small caps, the results do not favor this hypothesis and
show that only the most recent BM is important to predict the assets
returns. Furthermore, stock issues and repurchases are also related to
future cashflows and it is expected to improve estimates of expected
returns. However, the results provide no evidence favoring that.
The Halloween effect relates to the notion that stock market returns
tend to be higher in the period from November to April than from May to
October. In this study, we analyze the robustness of this trading strategy
taking into account the individual returns of stocks traded in the Brazilian
stock market during the period from August 1994 to June 2014. Using standard
dummy regression approach introduced by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002), our
results suggest the existence of the Halloween effect in the Brazilian
market, which has shown to be economically and statistically significant,
with a positive sign and a slight drop trend over the past few years. In
addition, when reassessing these results using the "Superior Predictive
Ability Test" of Hansen (2005), we have found that an investment strategy
based on the Halloween effect generates a statistically significant returns
superior to a buy-and-hold strategy when the effects of data-snooping when
data-snooping effects are not neglected in the stock returns series, as in
Bouman and Jacobsen (2002).
In this paper, we use the information from the credit default swap
market to measure the main components of the oil and gas companies spread.
Using nearly 20 companies of this industry with different ratings and nearly
80 bonds, the result was that the majority of the oil and gas spread is due
to the default risk. We also find that the spread component related to the
non-default is strongly associated with some liquidity measures of bond
markets, what suggest that liquidity has a very important role in the
valuation of fixed income assets. On the other side, we do not find evidence
that the non-default component of the spread is related to tax
matters.
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