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Highlights d Mining within Indigenous Lands may impact 20% more forests than the current scenario d Proposed bill could affect forests providing at least $5 billion in ecosystem services annually d Impact assessments must comply with best practices to safeguard ecosystems and people

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Increased prices and political pressure are boosting illegal gold mining in the Brazilian Amazon, threatening forests, indigenous people, and conservation of biodiversity in protected areas. The rate of illegal mining deforestation increased more than 90% from 2017 to 2020, reaching 101.7 km2 annually in 2020 compared to 52.9 km2 annually in 2017. In that period, illegal mining deforestation rate grew more than the rate of clearing within mining leases. While formal mining is required to comply with environmental regulations, most small-scale or artisanal mining and especially illegal mining areas are abandoned after reserves are exhausted, without proper rehabilitation. Deforestation due to illegal mining is likely to increase in the next years, calling for coordination between local and regional policies as well as for strengthening and expanding international mechanisms to increase traceability of mineral supply chains with certification schemes to help to curb illegal mining.

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Infrastructure projects and agriculture expansion are increasingly threatening forest conservation in Pará state (Brazil). It becomes necessary to address the implications of these activities on the Amazon complex socio-ecological system, considering both material and non-material aspects of Nature´s Contributions to People (NCP). Multiple studies developed future scenarios for the Amazon, but only a few have focused on discussing positive futures derived from policies and interventions based on conservation and human well-being. Here, we aim at understanding the drivers of forest cover change to produce positive scenarios for the future of the Amazon forest in Pará state. By using the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) conceptual framework, we identified as direct drivers of forest cover change: (i) roads construction; (ii) forest degradation; (iii) hydropower projects; (iv) urban expansion; (v) agriculture and pasture expansion; (vi) rural land occupation; (vii) mining; (viii) climate change. As indirect drivers we identified: (i) energy demand; (ii) population growth; (iii) land prices; (iv) commodity demand; (v) consumption behavior. The development of conservation strategies in the borders of deforested areas is needed given the high demand for Nature´s Contributions to People supply. We also propose policies to address the main drivers of forest cover change, influencing land management and consumption behavior in the state. At last, we envision future positive scenarios that would emerge from policy applications and sustainable actions. Based on our study, we discuss the importance of social learning for developing pathways leading to positive futures that consider the integrity and development of both ecological and social systems.