The Bajo Segura Fault Zone, located at the NE end of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, has been the site of some of the most intense seismic activity on the Iberian Peninsula in the historical and instrumental time periods. This structure is an active blind fault that does not show any surface rupture. It is characterised by a set of ENE-WSW trending blind thrust faults that offset the Triassic basement and cause active folding of the Upper Miocene-Quaternary sedimentary cover. The main active structures of this fault zone are two ENE-WSW striking reverse blind faults, the Torremendo and the Bajo Segura Faults, and several secondary NW-SE striking dextral faults (San Miguel de Salinas, Torrevieja and Guardamar Faults). These structures continue offshore to the east. From geological, geomorphological and geodetic data, we obtain fault slip rates between 0.2 and 0.4 mm/yr, whereas other authors have proposed higher values ranging between 0.75 and 1 mm/yr. The fault zone can generate earthquakes with maximum estimated magnitudes (Mw) from 6.6 to 7.1 and has approximate recurrence intervals between 4.500 and 21.500 years.

The Carrascoy Fault (CAF) is one of the main active faults that form part of the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, a 450 km fault system that accommodates most of the convergence between the Eurasian (Iberia) and Nubian plates in the Betic Cordillera, south Spain. Although the CAF represents a major earthquake threat to the nearby City of Murcia, studies on its Quaternary tectonics and seismogenic potential are scarce to date. We present evidence that supports the division of the CAF into two overlapping segments with contrasting tectonic structure, Quaternary activity, and landform control: a SW segment, characterized by a broad fold-and-thrust zone similar to the forebergs defined in the Gobi-Altai region, and a NE segment, characterized by a sharp mountain front controlled by strike-slip tectonics. We attribute the differentiation into these two segments to the stresses associated with topography, which in turn is a consequence of the shortening component, at the middle Pleistocene, after circa 217.4 ka. For the SW segment we infer the occurrence of 9 to 11, M w 6.7 paleoearthquakes in the last 30.2 kyr, and a slip rate of 0.37 ± 0.08 m/kyr. We date the occurrence of the last surface rupture event after 2750 B.P., and we estimate an average recurrence period of major events of 3.3 ± 0.7 kyr.

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In probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA), seismic source zone (SSZ) models are widely used to account for the contribution to the hazard from earthquakes not directly correlated with geological structures. Notwithstanding the impact of SSZ models in PSHA, the theoretical framework underlying SSZ models and the criteria used to delineate the SSZs are seldom explicitly stated and suitably documented. In this paper, we propose a methodological framework to develop and document SSZ models, which includes (1) an assessment of the appropriate scale and degree of stationarity, (2) an assessment of seismicity catalog completeness-related issues, and (3) an evaluation and credibility ranking of physical criteria used to delineate the boundaries of the SSZs. We also emphasize the need for SSZ models to be supported by a comprehensive set of metadata documenting both the unique characteristics of each SSZ and the criteria used to delineate its boundaries. This procedure ensures that the uncertainties in the model can be properly addressed in the PSHA and that the model can be easily updated whenever new data are available. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the SSZ model developed for the Azores-West Iberian region in the context of the Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe project (project SHARE) and some of the most relevant SSZs are discussed in detail.Online Material: Tables describing characteristics and boundaries of the seismic source zones.