Modelling earthquake rupture rates in fault systems for seismic hazard assessment: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone

Gómez-Novell, Octavi; Chartier, Thomas; García-Mayordomo, Julián; Ortuño, María; Masana, E.; Insúa-Arévalo, Juan M.; Scotti, Oona

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105452

Cited by 15 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Fault sources are modeled exclusively for the EBSZ. The source modeling performed is based on the SHERIFS methodology as published in Gómez-Novell et al, 2020, where the first step of a source modeling for PSHA is performed at the EBSZ: the feasibility of multi-fault rupture scenarios is analyzed and earthquake occurrence on faults is modeled at the whole fault system scale following a GR distribution.…”

Section: Fault Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The slip rate of each fault is treated as a budget and it is consumed following an iterative process to fit the target MFD, in which the different rupture scenarios are computed separately until the budget of the limiting faults is exhausted. The resulting MFDs are representative of the whole fault system and are weighted in a logic tree according to their consistency with data from the regional seismic catalog and paleoseismic studies (see Gómez-Novell et al, 2020 for details on how SHERIFS is applied to compute and weight the fault system MFDs).…”

Section: Fault Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aim of our paper is to explore a fault-based PSHA in a moderate seismicity region as it is the EBSZ in SE Spain, using a state-of-the-art fault source modeling approach that implements fault data as inputs, considers multi-fault rupture possibilities at the whole fault system scale and treats them as aleatory uncertainty. We use the source models computed and published in a previous article (Gómez-Novell et al, 2020). There, an emergent methodology (SHERIFS; Chartier et al, 2019) is applied to perform a source modeling of the EBSZ by computing magnitude-frequency distributions (MFDs) at the scale of the whole EBSZ fault system considering different scenarios of fault ruptures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fault System-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of a Moderate Seismicity Region: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone (SE Spain)

et al. 2020

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Including faults as seismogenic sources in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) has turned into a common practice as knowledge of active faults is improving. Moreover, the occurrence of earthquakes in multi-fault ruptures has evidenced the need to understand faults as interacting systems rather than independent sources. We present a PSHA for the Southeastern Spain obtained by including the faults of a moderate seismicity region, the Eastern Betics Shear Zone (EBSZ) in SE Spain, as the main seismogenic sources in two separate source models, one considering background seismicity. In contrast with previous studies in Spain, earthquake occurrence of the EBSZ system is modeled considering different hypotheses of multi-fault ruptures at the whole fault system scale and weighted in a logic tree. We compare the hazard levels with those from an area source PSHA and a previous fault-based approach. The results show a clear control of the EBSZ faults in the seismic hazard for all return periods, increasing drastically the hazard levels in the regions close to the fault traces and influencing up to 20 km farther with respect to the area source PSHA. The seismic hazard is dependent on the fault slip rates as peak ground accelerations and territorial extension of the fault influence appear higher around the Alhama de Murcia and Carboneras faults, while lower slip rate faults (Palomares Fault) show minor contribution to the hazard. For the return period of 475 years and near-fault locations, our models are more consistent with the ground motion values reached in the 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca event than the building code or national seismic hazard map, which suggest that our fault system-based model performs more accurate estimations for this return period. Fault data, mainly slip rates, and its uncertainties have a clear impact on the seismic hazard and, for some faults, the lack of detailed paleoseismic studies can compromise the reliability of the hazard estimations. This, together with epistemic uncertainties concerning the background seismicity, are key discussion points in the present study, having an impact on further research and aiming to serve as a case example for other low-to-moderate seismicity regions worldwide.

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Section: Fault Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Fault Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Fault System-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of a Moderate Seismicity Region: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone (SE Spain)

et al. 2020

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“…To fill in this knowledge gap in the community it is fundamental to first build geological databases that are easily accessible to end users. The Fault2SHA effort thus focused on building community databases at the scale of two test areas (laboratories), one representative of transpressive tectonics in the Betic of Spain (Gómez-Novell et al, 2020) and the other representative of normal faulting tectonics in the Central Apennines of Italy (see Fault2SHA Central Apennines Laboratory (CA-Lab) database, 1…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Which Fault Threatens Me Most? Bridging the Gap Between Geologic Data-Providers and Seismic Risk Practitioners

et al. 2021

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The aim of the Fault2SHA European Seismological Commission Working Group Central Apennines laboratory is to enhance the use of geological data in fault-based seismic hazard and risk assessment and to promote synergies between data providers (earthquake geologists), end-users and decision-makers. Here we use the Fault2SHA Central Apennines Database where geologic data are provided in the form of characterized fault traces, grouped into faults and main faults, with individual slip rate estimates. The proposed methodology first derives slip rate profiles for each main fault. Main faults are then divided into distinct sections of length comparable to the seismogenic depth to allow consideration of variable slip rates and the exploration of multi-fault ruptures in the computations. The methodology further allows exploration of epistemic uncertainties documented in the database (e.g., main fault definition, slip rates) as well as additional parameters required to characterize the seismogenic potential of fault sources (e.g., 3D fault geometries). To illustrate the power of the methodology, in this paper we consider only one branch of the uncertainties affecting each step of the computation procedure. The resulting hazard and typological risk maps allow both data providers and end-users 1) to visualize the faults that threaten specific localities the most, 2) to appreciate the density of observations used for the computation of slip rate profiles, and 3) interrogate the degree of confidence on the fault parameters documented in the database (activity and location certainty). Finally, closing the loop, the methodology highlights priorities for future geological investigations in terms of where improvements in the density of data within the database would lead to the greatest decreases in epistemic uncertainties in the hazard and risk calculations. Key to this new generation of fault-based seismic hazard and risk methodology are the user-friendly open source codes provided with this publication, documenting, step-by-step, the link between the geological database and the relative contribution of each section to seismic hazard and risk at specific localities.

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“…Fault slip rates are directly extracted from published works and, in selected cases, from unpublished data or expert opinion, as specified in Table 1 (see also the Appendix in TABLE 1 | Fault input data used to calculate the earthquake rates of the EBSZ fault system with the SHERIFS approach in the fault source modeling. The sources of information and references from where fault slip rate data are extracted are specified (see details in Gómez-Novell et al, 2020). Other fault parameters are extracted from the QAFI v.3.…”

Section: Fault Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modelling earthquake rupture rates in fault systems for seismic hazard assessment: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone

Cited by 15 publications

References 67 publications

Fault System-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of a Moderate Seismicity Region: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone (SE Spain)

Fault System-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of a Moderate Seismicity Region: The Eastern Betics Shear Zone (SE Spain)

Which Fault Threatens Me Most? Bridging the Gap Between Geologic Data-Providers and Seismic Risk Practitioners

datasheet1.zip

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