This paper presents a probabilistic approach for the assessment of the Weather and External Forces hazard in pipelines using a Bayesian Belief Network. Such model was constructed through structured expert judgment methods for those factors whose deterministic modelling is complex or unknown and existent models for those known factors or previously studied phenomena. For the hazard modelling, three fundamental groups of variables were considered: susceptibility, triggering events and vulnerability. Through this proposal, the hazard is described from a probabilistic perspective, including the uncertainty associated with instability processes, information gathering and analysis and risk perception, among others. A transportation system characterized by its high geotechnical complexity is used as a case study, and results were compared with the current assessment model. The results show that the new model has greater sensitivity to the hazard level while being consistent with both the condition of the Right of Way (ROW) and the hydrocarbon transportation infrastructure.
Usually, the definition of geotechnically homogeneous zones is established through the analysis of information on a regional (and even national) scale of those characteristics that define the topographic, geological, climatic, and land use conditions by categorizing them and applying algorithms of interaction between these variables. However, in technical literature and in technical reports of state entities that manage natural hazards, new advances are being made in the determination of other aspects or variables that detail the condition of geotechnical susceptibility; at the same time, nowadays there are technological tools for the massive analysis of information and its spatialization. This article presents a new approach to the definition of geotechnically homogeneous zones using these technological tools. A comparison is made against the conventional definition.
This paper presents the climatic zoning in the Rights-Of-Way (ROW) of Cenit’s infrastructure, in which the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall was determined by analyzing precipitation information in a time window of 30 years. Rains influence on the ROW stability are exposed in two cases of study, using climatic zoning as a fundamental basis for understanding its effects. The analysis of these case studies allows establishing guidelines for the geohazard management during rainy seasons.
About 20% of Cenit’s hydrocarbon transport infrastructure are located on mountainous terrain susceptible to effect of geohazards. There is an integrity management plan based on inspection, monitoring and mitigation activities; however, the occurrence of accidents triggered by geohazards has caused emergencies with effects on environment receiver and on operation of transport systems This paper presents, through management some of these accidents, good practices identified, learning in terms of prevention, preparation and response to emergencies and identification of priorities and gaps, in order to strengthen continuous improvement of the geohazards integrity management strategy.
Integrity Management on Cenit common Right-of-Way (ROW), contemplate a preventive vision respect the impact that new infrastructure projects can cause in hydrocarbon transportation systems directly and indirectly. By including the management of Climate and External Forces Threat from this preventive approach have been identified mitigation and/or maintenance actions of which must be considered in the arrangements of common right-of-way with external entities responsible for the planning, construction and operation of these projects. This document presents the management strategy that was built an implemented largely, and the exposed examples are intended to show the importance of incorporates these learned lessons in the management of geotechnical assurance of the ROW.
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