This paper presents a probabilistic approach for the assessment of the Weather and External Forces hazard in pipelines using a Bayesian Belief Network. Such model was constructed through structured expert judgment methods for those factors whose deterministic modelling is complex or unknown and existent models for those known factors or previously studied phenomena. For the hazard modelling, three fundamental groups of variables were considered: susceptibility, triggering events and vulnerability. Through this proposal, the hazard is described from a probabilistic perspective, including the uncertainty associated with instability processes, information gathering and analysis and risk perception, among others. A transportation system characterized by its high geotechnical complexity is used as a case study, and results were compared with the current assessment model. The results show that the new model has greater sensitivity to the hazard level while being consistent with both the condition of the Right of Way (ROW) and the hydrocarbon transportation infrastructure.
This paper presents the climatic zoning in the Rights-Of-Way (ROW) of Cenit’s infrastructure, in which the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall was determined by analyzing precipitation information in a time window of 30 years. Rains influence on the ROW stability are exposed in two cases of study, using climatic zoning as a fundamental basis for understanding its effects. The analysis of these case studies allows establishing guidelines for the geohazard management during rainy seasons.
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