This paper presents a proposed modeling approach which uses unsteady flow hydraulic modeling for both flood routing and flood level determination. The onerous data requirements of hydraulic models in the flood routing application are overcome through the use of a "limited geometry" approach to describe channel geometry. In populated areas, where flood levels are needed, the model employs full cross section geometry. This hybrid model offers the advantage of operationally combining the flood routing and the determination of the flood level. In addition, the use of a hydraulic model opens up the potential for modeling more dynamic flood events such as ice jam release surges, which cannot be handled by traditional hydrological modeling approaches.Résumé : Cet article propose une approche de modélisation, qui utilise une modélisation hydraulique pour écoulements non-permanents à des fins de laminage de crues et de détermination des niveaux de crues. Les exigences onéreuses en terme de données de la part des modèles hydrauliques appliqués pour le laminage de crues sont surmontées grâce à l'emploi d'une approche dite de « géométrie réduite », ceci afin de décrire la géométrie du canal. Pour les régions peuplées, là où les niveaux de crues sont requis, le modèle utilise la géométrie complète de la section transversale. Ce modèle hybride offre l'avantage de combiner, sur une base opérationnelle, le laminage de crues et le procédé de prévision pour la détermination des niveaux de crues. En plus, l'emploi d'un modèle hydraulique pave la voie pour la modélisa-tion d'événements de crues plus dynamiques, telles que les débâcles de glace, qui ne peuvent être prises en compte par les approches traditionnelles de modélisation hydrologique.Mots clés : laminage de crues, délimitation de la crue, modélisation par éléments finis, rivière de la Paix.[Traduit par la Rédaction] Blackburn and Hicks 75
The town of Hay River, located in the Northwest Territories, Canada, is vulnerable to ice jam flooding occurring in the adjacent Hay River delta. The most extreme flooding events have occurred when ice jams in the channels of the delta were pushed downstream towards the mouth at Great Slave Lake. This movement has been linked to incoming waves from ice jam release in the upstream reaches of the Hay River. This study incorporated the effect of an upstream ice jam release wave into the prediction of ice jam caused flood levels in the delta by integrating three one-dimensional models. The method was validated with observed breakup events and then used to simulate various combinations of ice and water conditions in the river and the delta. Multiple linear regression analyses were applied to the results to develop a prediction tool for assessing ice jam flood risk.
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