Suitability of Dynamic Modeling for Flood Forecasting during Ice Jam Release Surge Events

Blackburn, Julia; Hicks, Faye

doi:10.1061/(asce)0887-381x(2003)17:1(18)

Cited by 32 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Burrell (2005a, 2005b) presented information derived from field measurements of such waves and developed a method to determine associated hydraulic parameters. Approximate water levels and velocities can be calculated via a simple theory (Henderson and Gerard 1981) or by numerical unsteady flow models (Beltaos and Krishnappan 1982;Hicks et al 1997;Blackburn and Hicks 2003;Liu and Shen 2004).…”

Section: Maximum Water and Ice Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydraulic effects of ice breakup on bridges

Beltaos¹,

Miller²,

Burrell³

et al. 2007

Can. J. Civ. Eng.

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The passage of river ice during the breakup event can have several effects on bridge structures. Design for ice passage at bridges has largely been empirical, such as the determination of superstructure clearance requirements based on historical stage data. As hydrologic and river ice processes in rivers are modified by climatic change, the use of empirical methods based on past observations and measurements could become less reliable. To advance beyond empiricism, it is necessary to develop rational design criteria based on a thorough understanding of the factors governing the interaction between bridges and ice. This concern applies especially during the breakup event when river flows, velocities, and hydrodynamic forces are usually higher and moving ice is thicker and stronger than during freeze-up. This paper provides guidance on the design of bridges to minimize ice impacts on the structure during the breakup period.Résumé : Le passage des glaces durant la débâcle peut avoir de nombreux effets sur la structure des ponts. La conception des ponts pour le passage des glaces était à ce jour largement empirique, comme la détermination du dégagement des superstructures conçues selon les données historiques. Alors que les processus hydrologiques et des glaces seront modifiés par les changements climatiques, l'utilisation de méthodes empiriques basées sur les observations et les mesures passées pourrait devenir moins fiable. Pour progresser au-delà de l'empirisme, il est nécessaire de développer des critères de conception rationnels, basés sur une compréhension approfondie des facteurs régissant l'interaction entre les ponts et la glace. Cela s'applique surtout durant la débâcle lorsque les débits, les vitesses et les forces hydrodynamiques des rivières sont généralement plus élevés et que la glace en mouvement est plus épaisse et résistante que durant la formation des glaces. Le présent article fournit des lignes directrices pour la conception des ponts afin de minimiser les impacts des glaces sur la structure durant la période de débâcle.

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Section: Maximum Water and Ice Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydraulic effects of ice breakup on bridges

Beltaos¹,

Miller²,

Burrell³

et al. 2007

Can. J. Civ. Eng.

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“…A few researchers have tried to simulate propagation of ice jam release waves, most of them using the one dimensional model without the consideration of ice effect (e.g. Beltaos and Krishnappan, 1982;Blackburn and Hicks, 2003). Although the deviation between the observed data and simulated data was acceptable, it is difficult to match the shapes of observed stage hydrographs with those of simulated ones, which implied that the ice effect on the wave propagation could not be neglected reasonably.…”

Section: Breakup Periodmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical Modelling of Ice Floods in the Ning-Meng Reach of the Yellow River Basin

Wang¹

2018

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Although all care is taken to ensure integrity and the quality of this publication and the information herein, no responsibility is assumed by the publishers, the author nor UNESCO-IHE for any damage to the property or persons as a result of operation or use of this publication and/or the information contained herein. Ice is present during part of the year on many rivers in cold and even temperate regions of the globe.Although largely ignored in hydrological literature, river ice can have serious impacts, including extreme flood events triggered by ice jams, interference with transportation and energy production, reduced river flows and associated ecological and water quality consequences. Ice is a significant factor influencing planetary biogeochemical cycles and the development of certain ecosystems.River ice phenomena include the formation, evolution, transport, accumulation, dissipation, and deterioration of various forms of ice. River ice processes involve complex interactions between hydrodynamic, mechanical and thermal processes, which are also influenced by meteorological and hydrological conditions. The occurrence of ice in rivers is an important phenomenon to be considered in the development of water resources in cold regions. Ice formation can affect the design, operation and maintenance of reservoirs. Major engineering concerns related to river ice are ice jamming, reservoir operations, water transfer, and environmental and morphological effects.The Ning-Meng reach (including Ningxia Hui Nationality Autonomous Region and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region) is located at the Northern part of the Yellow River basin and has a length of 1,237 km. Due to its special geographical location and river flow direction, the Ning-Meng reach freezes up every year in winter. Both during the freeze-up and breakup period, unfavourable conditions can occur which may cause ice jams and ice dams to occur, leading to dike breaching and overtopping of the embankment, which has resulted in huge casualties and property losses throughout history. Following the development of the integrated water resources management plan for the Yellow River, the requirements for water regulation in the upper Yellow River during ice flood periods should not only safeguard against ice floods, but also assure the availability of limited water resources. This determines the overall requirement for ice regime forecasting including lead-time and precision. In order to solve the above mentioned problem, a numerical model is one of the essential parts of the current research going on at the Yellow River Conservancy Commission (YRCC), which can be used to supplement the inadequacies in the field and lab studies which are being carried out to help understand the physical processes related to river ice on the Yellow River.Although numerical ice flood models have been built for several rivers in the world, they mainly have a simulation purpose and are often applied only over short distances. Also, they are not designed to make forecasts and usually lack ...

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“…In terms of flood forecasting, it is highly desirable to develop predictive models describing ice jam release wave propagation, and numerous researchers have attempted this using the one-dimensional unsteady open channel flow equations (e.g., Henderson and Gerard 1981;Beltaos and Krishnappan 1982;Hicks et al 1997;Blackburn and Hicks 2003). None of these modelling-analysis efforts included ice effects explicitly; however, field studies conducted by Jasek (2003) documenting a number of ice runs resulting from release events in the Yukon suggested that ice effects could be significant, especially in the initial period after release.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observations of ice jam release waves on the Athabasca River near Fort McMurray, Alberta

Hutchison¹,

Hicks²

2007

Can. J. Civ. Eng.

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This paper presents an investigation of all documented ice jam release events for the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray, Alberta. A review of the historical records indicates that release waves in excess of 3 m and propagation speeds of 4-5 m/s are not uncommon. Numerous occurrences of increases in wave speed and magnitude suggest that temporary stalling of ice runs may be a significant factor in release event propagation. Detailed measurements of ice jam release events in 2001-2003, including most notably a 4.3 m high release wave measured in 2002, provide unprecedented data describing ice jam release wave propagation and suggest that continued propagation of a portion of the release wave downstream of a reformed jam could be a significant factor in immediate re-release.Résumé : Cet article présente un examen de tous les événements de débâcle documentés pour la rivière Athabaska à Fort McMurray, Alberta. Une revue des registres historiques indique que les vagues produites lors de la débâcle dépas-sant 3 m de hauteur et des vitesses de propagation de 4 à 5 m/s sont fréquentes. Plusieurs augmentations de la vitesse et de l'amplitude des vagues ont été remarquées, ce qui suggère que le délai temporaire de la dérive des glaces puisse être un facteur important de la propagation de la débâcle. Des mesures détaillées des débâcles entre 2001 et 2003, incluant une vaque très remarquable de 4,3 m de hauteur en 2002, ont fourni des données extraordinaires sur la propagation des vagues produites par la débâcle et suggèrent que la propagation continue d'une portion de cette vague en aval d'un embâcle reformé pourrait être un facteur significatif dans la nouvelle débâcle imminente.

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Suitability of Dynamic Modeling for Flood Forecasting during Ice Jam Release Surge Events

Cited by 32 publications

References 3 publications

Hydraulic effects of ice breakup on bridges

Hydraulic effects of ice breakup on bridges

Numerical Modelling of Ice Floods in the Ning-Meng Reach of the Yellow River Basin

Observations of ice jam release waves on the Athabasca River near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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