Recent measurements at a cabled sea-floor node in 15 meters of water off the coast of New Jersey suggest that Langmuir supercells, Langmuir circulations that achieve vertical scales equal to the water depth under extended storms, are an important mechanism for major sediment resuspension events on the extensive shallow shelves off the eastern U.S. coast. Because sediment resuspension is a prelude to transport, supercell events are a necessary condition for major sediment transport. Such events may also contribute to shelf-sea exchange and to offshore gradation of benthic community structure in shallow seas.

During extended deployment at an ocean observatory off the coast of New Jersey, a bottom-mounted five-beam acoustic Doppler current profiler measured large-scale velocity structures that we interpret as Langmuir circulations filling the entire water column. These circulations are the large-eddy structures of wind-wave-driven turbulent flows that occur episodically when a shallow water column experiences prolonged strong wind forcing. Many observational characteristics agree with former descriptions of Langmuir circulations in deep water. The three-dimensional velocity field reveals quasi-organized structures consisting of pairs of surface-intensified counter-rotating vortices, aligned approximately downwind. Maximum downward velocities are stronger than upward velocities, and the downwelling region of each cell, defined as a pair of vortices, is narrower than the upwelling region. Maximum downward vertical velocity occurs at or above mid-depth, and scales approximately with wind speed. The estimated crosswind scale of cells is roughly 3–6 times their vertical scale, set under these conditions by water depth. The long axis of the cells appears to lie at an angle ∼10°–20° to the right of the wind. A major difference from deep-water observations is strong near-bottom intensification of the downwind ‘jets’ found typically centred over downwelling regions. Accessible observational features such as cell morphology and profiles of mean velocities, turbulent velocity variances, and shear stress components are compared with the results of associated large-eddy simulations (reported in Part 2) of shallow water flows driven by surface stress and the Craik–Leibovich vortex forcing generally used to represent generation of Langmuir cells. A particularly sensitive diagnostic for identification of Langmuir circulations as the energy-containing eddies of the turbulent flow is the depth trajectory of invariants of the turbulent stress tensor, plotted in the Lumley ‘triangle’ corresponding to realizable turbulent flows. When Langmuir structures are present in the observations, the Lumley map is distinctly different from that of surface-stress-driven Couette flow, again in agreement with the large-eddy simulations (LES). Unlike the LES, observed velocity fields contain two distinct and significant scales of variability, documented by wavelet analysis of observational records of vertical velocity. Variability with periods of many minutes is that expected from Langmuir cells drifting past the instrument at the slowly time-varying crosswind velocity. Shorter period variability, of the order of 1–2 min, has roughly the observed periodicity of surface wave groups, suggesting a connection with the wave groups themselves and/or the wave breaking associated with them in high wind conditions.

Observations of the velocity structure at the Kilo Nalu Observatory on the south shore of Oahu, Hawaii show that thermally driven baroclinic exchange is a dominant mechanism for cross-shore transport for this tropical forereef environment. Estimates of the exchange and net volume fluxes are comparable and show that the average residence time for the zone shoreward of the 12 m isobath is generally much less than 1 day. Although cross-shore wind stress influences the diurnal cross-shore exchange, surface heat flux is identified as the primary forcing mechanism from the phase relationships and from analysis of momentum and buoyancy balances for the record-averaged diurnal structure. Dynamic flow regimes are characterized based on a two-dimensional theoretical framework and the observations of the thermal structure at Kilo Nalu are shown to be in the unsteady temperature regime. Diurnal phasing and the cross-shore momentum balance suggest that turbulent stress divergence is an important driver of the baroclinic exchange. While the thermally driven exchange has a robust diurnal profile in the long term, there is high temporal variability on shorter time scales. Ensemble-averaged diurnal profiles indicate that the exchange is strongly modulated by surface heat flux, wind speed/direction, and alongshore velocity direction. The latter highlights the role of alongshore variability in the thermally driven exchange. Analysis of the thermal balance in the nearshore region indicates that the cross-shore exchange accounts for roughly 38% of the advective heat transport on a daily basis.

The rate of coastal sea level change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) has decreased in recent decades. The relative contributions to the decreased rate from remote equatorial wind stress, local longshore wind stress, and local windstress curl are examined. Regressions of sea level onto wind stress time series and comparisons between NEP and Fremantle sea levels suggest that the decreased rate in the NEP is primarily due to oceanic adjustment to strengthened trade winds along the equatorial and coastal waveguides. When taking care to account for correlations between the various wind stress time series, the roles of longshore wind stress and local windstress curl are found to be of minor importance in comparison to equatorial forcing. The predictability of decadal sea level change rates along the NEP coastline is therefore largely determined by tropical variability. In addition, the importance of accounting for regional, wind-driven sea level variations when attempting to calculate accelerations in the long-term rate of sea level rise is demonstrated.

Sea level anomaly extremes impact tropical Pacific Ocean islands, often with too little warning to mitigate risks. With El Niño, such as the strong 2015/16 event, comes weaker trade winds and mean sea level drops exceeding 30 cm in the western Pacific that expose shallow-water ecosystems at low tides. Nearly opposite climate conditions accompany La Niña events, which cause sea level high stands (10–20 cm) and result in more frequent tide- and storm-related inundations that threaten coastlines. In the past, these effects have been exacerbated by decadal sea level variability, as well as continuing global sea level rise. Climate models, which are increasingly better able to simulate past and future evolutions of phenomena responsible for these extremes (i.e., El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and greenhouse warming), are also able to describe, or even directly simulate, associated sea level fluctuations. By compiling monthly sea level anomaly predictions from multiple statistical and dynamical (coupled ocean–atmosphere) models, which are typically skillful out to at least six months in the tropical Pacific, improved future outlooks are achieved. From this multimodel ensemble comes forecasts that are less prone to individual model errors and also uncertainty measurements achieved by comparing retrospective forecasts with the observed sea level. This framework delivers online a new real-time forecasting product of monthly mean sea level anomalies and will provide to the Pacific island community information that can be used to reduce impacts associated with sea level extremes.