In the Bay of Bengal, the warm, dry boreal spring concludes with the onset of the summer monsoon and accompanying southwesterly winds, heavy rains, and variable air-sea fluxes. Here, we summarize the 2018 monsoon onset using observations collected through the multinational Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in the Bay of Bengal (MISO-BoB) program between the US, India, and Sri Lanka. MISO-BoB aims to improve understanding of monsoon intraseasonal variability, and the 2018 field effort captured the coupled air-sea response during a transition from active-to-break conditions in the central BoB. The active phase of the ~20-day research cruise was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST > 30°C), cold atmospheric outflows with intermittent heavy rainfall, and increasing winds (from 2 to 15 m s−1). Accumulated rainfall exceeded 200 mm with 90% of precipitation occurring during the first week. The following break period was both dry and clear, with persistent 10−12 m s−1 wind and evaporation of 0.2 mm h−1. The evolving environmental state included a deepening ocean mixed layer (from ~20 to 50 m), cooling SST (by ~ 1°C), and warming/drying of the lower to mid-troposphere. Local atmospheric development was consistent with phasing of the large-scale intraseasonal oscillation. The upper ocean stores significant heat in the BoB, enough to maintain SST above 29°C despite cooling by surface fluxes and ocean mixing. Comparison with reanalysis indicates biases in air-sea fluxes, which may be related to overly cool prescribed SST. Resolution of such biases offers a path toward improved forecasting of transition periods in the monsoon.
Surface salinity in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has a well-defined seasonal cycle, with highest open ocean salinity (generally in the range 33-34 psu) in spring (March-May) and lowest values (24-32 psu) during late summer and autumn (September-November)
Information about waves with specific return period in a region is essential for the safe design of marine facilities. In this study, significant wave height for 50-year return period is estimated using generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on the 15-year wave hindcast data. In order to realize the dependency of nature of the time series data on return value estimation, three types of data series: daily maxima (DM), monthly maxima (MM) and annual maxima (AM) are considered for GEV, whereas for GPD, threshold values are estimated from the parent data set at 6 h and the DM series. The GEV distribution shows that AM predicts higher significant wave height followed by MM and then DM. The large number (~ 50%) of smaller wave height value (< 1 m) in the DM leads to smaller estimate in wave height for 50-year return period for DM series compared to other data series. Among the locations studied, the maximum value of the significant wave height with 50-year return period by GEV with AM data series is 7.15 m in the western shelf seas and is 7.36 m for the eastern shelf seas, whereas the values based on GPD with peak over threshold are 6.94 and 7.42 m, respectively. Case studies are also done to know the influence of tropical cyclone on the estimated 50-year return value.
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