Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

[1] A link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and multidecadal variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is unraveled and a long sought physical mechanism linking Atlantic climate and monsoon has been identified. The AMO produces persistent weakening (strengthening) of the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature (TT) by setting up negative (positive) TT anomaly over Eurasia during northern late summer/ autumn resulting in early (late) withdrawal of the south west monsoon and persistent decrease (increase) of seasonal monsoon rainfall. On inter -annual time scales, strong North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or North Annular mode (NAM) influences the monsoon by producing similar TT anomaly over Eurasia. The AMO achieves the interdecadal modulation of the monsoon by modulating the frequency of occurrence of strong NAO/ NAM events. This mechanism also provides a basis for explaining the observed teleconnection between North Atlantic temperature and the Asian monsoon in paleoclimatic proxies.

[1] Active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon are characterized by enhancement and decrease of precipitation over the monsoon trough region. Using genesis data of monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) and circulation data for the period 1954 to 1993, it is shown that the frequency of occurrence of LPS is nearly 3.5 times higher in the active phase of monsoon as compared to the break phase. In addition, the tracks of these synoptic systems are also strongly spatially clustered along the monsoon trough during the active phase of the monsoon. The enhanced (decreased) frequency of occurrence of LPS during active (break) phases is due to modulation of meridional shear of zonal winds and cyclonic vorticity along the monsoon trough by the intraseasonal oscillations (ISO).

According to recent estimates, the annual total continental runoff into the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is about 2950 km3, which is more than half that into the entire tropical Indian Ocean (IO). Here we use climatological observations to trace the seasonal pathways of near surface freshwater from BoB runoff and Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) by removing the net contribution from precipitation minus evaporation. North of 20°S, the amount of freshwater from BoB runoff and ITF changes with season in a manner consistent with surface currents from drifters. BoB runoff reaches remote regions of the Arabian Sea; it also crosses the equator in the east to join the ITF. This freshwater subsequently flows west across the southern tropical IO in the South Equatorial Current.

Abstract.New

The first observational experiment under the Indian Climate Research Programme, called the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX), was carried out during July-August 1999. BOBMEX was aimed at measurements of important variables of the atmosphere, ocean, and their interface to gain deeper insight into some of the processes that govern the variability of organized convection over the bay. Simultaneous time series observations were carried out in the northern and southern Bay of Bengal from ships and moored buoys. About 80 scientists from 15 different institutions in India collaborated during BOBMEX to make observations in most-hostile conditions of the raging monsoon. In this paper, the objectives and the design of BOBMEX are described and some initial results presented. During the BOBMEX field phase there were several active spells of convection over the bay, separated by weak spells. Observation with high-resolution radiosondes, launched for the first time over the northern bay, showed that the magnitudes of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convective inhibition energy were comparable to those for the atmosphere over the west Pacific warm pool. CAPE decreased by 2-3 kJ kg-1 following con-vection, and recovered in a time period of 1-2 days. The surface wind speed was generally higher than 8 ms-1. The thermohaline structure as well as its time evolution during the BOBMEX field phase were found to be different in the northern bay than in the southern bay. Over both the regions, the SST decreased during rain events and increased in cloud-free conditions. Over the season as a whole, the upper-layer salinity decreased for the north bay and increased for the south bay. The variation in SST during 1999 was found to be of smaller amplitude than in 1998. Further analysis of the surface fluxes and currents is expected to give insight into the nature of coupling.

Simulations of the initial oxidation process of a SiC surface exposed to O2 and H2O molecules was studied with ReaxFF, an atomically detailed reactive molecular dynamics method that naturally models the breaking and forming of bonds. In this work, the ReaxFF forcefield was first expanded by training it with new quantum mechanics data of the binding energy, equation of state, and heat of formation of the SiC crystal, along with data from earlier studies that describes Si – Si, Si – O, and Si – H interactions. This expanded ReaxFF forcefield is capable of simultaneously describing both Si–C–O and Si–O–H bonding interactions. Using the forcefield, oxidation simulations were performed at various temperatures (in the range of 500 to 5000 K), and the trajectories were analyzed. The analyses showed that SiC gradually transforms into the oxides of silicon with simultaneous formation of a graphite-like layer. In presence of excess O2, the graphite-like layer was further oxidized to CO and CO2. We also analyzed the trajectories with two-atom and three-atom clusters to quantitatively track the oxidation progress. This analysis clearly showed Si–O and C–C bond formation at the expense of O–O and Si–C bond consumption indicating SiC oxidation with simultaneous formation for carbon-like structure. Consumption of SiC with O2 was found to be faster than that with H2O. We have also reported the oxidation simulation of SiC with a mixture of H2O and O2. Oxidation proceeded effectively as a two-part sequence, with O2 first oxidizing the SiC, followed then by H2O.

Abstract.The space-time evolution of the ocean and atmosphere associated with 1998-2000 monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) in the Indian Ocean and west Pacific is studied using validated sea surface temperature (