Technology is a central issue for the global climate change problem, requiring analysis tools that can examine the impact of specific technologies within a long-term, global context. This paper describes the architecture of the ObjECTS-MiniCAM integrated assessment model, which implements a longterm, global model of energy, economy, agriculture, land-use, atmosphere, and climate change in a framework that allows the flexible incorporation of explicit technology detail. We describe the implementation of a “bottom-up” representation of the transportation sector as an illustration of this approach, in which the resulting hybrid model is fully integrated, internally consistent and theoretically compatible with the regional and global modeling framework. The analysis of the transportation sector presented here supports and clarifies the need for a comprehensive strategy promoting advanced vehicle technologies and an economy-wide carbon policy to cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the long-term.
A global, self-consistent estimate of sulfur dioxide emissions over the last one and a half centuries was constructed by using a combination of bottom-up and best available inventory methods including all anthropogenic sources. We find that global sulfur dioxide emissions peaked about 1980 and have generally declined since this time. Emissions were extrapolated to a 1° × 1° grid for the time period 1850-2000 at annual resolution with two emission height levels and by season. Emissions were somewhat higher in the recent past in this new work as compared with other comprehensive estimates. This difference is largely due to our use of emissions factors that vary with time to account for sulfur removals from fossil fuels and industrial smelting processes.
Many stabilization scenarios have examined the implications of stabilization on the assumption that all regions and all sectors of all of the world's economies undertake emissions mitigations wherever and whenever it is cheapest to do so-This idealized assumption is just one of many ways in which emissions mitigation actions could play out globally, but not necessarily the most likely. This paper explores the implications of generic policy regimes that lead to stabilization of CO^ concentrations under conditions in which non-Annex I regions delay emissions reductions and in which carbon prices vary across participating regions. The resulting stabilization scenarios are contrasted with the idealized results. Delays in the date by which non-Annex I regions begin to reduce emissions raise the price of carbon in Annex I regions relative to the price of carbon in Annex I in an idealized regime for any given CO^ concentration limit. This effect increases the longer the delay in non-Annex I accession, the lower the non-Annex I carbon prices relative to the Annex I prices, and the more stringent the stabilization level. The effect of delay is very pronounced when CO^ concentrations are stabilized at 450 ppmv, however the effect is much less pronounced at 550 ppmv and above. For long delays in non-Annex I accession, 450 ppmv stabilization levels become infeasible. De nombreux scénarios de stabilisation ont examiné les conséquences de la stabilisation selon l'hypothèse que toutes les régions et tous les secteurs des économies du monde entier mettraient en place des mesures de réduction des émissions où et quand ceci est le moins coûteux. Cette hypothèse idéalisée n'est qu'une entre maintes façons d'envisager un déploiement global des réductions d'émissions, n'en étant pas pour autant la plus probable. Cet article explore les répercussions des régimes de politiques génériques menant à une stabilisation de la concentration des émissions de CO^ dans des conditions où ies régions non-annexe 1 différent leurs réductions d'émissions, et où le prixdu carbone varie entre ies régions participantes. Les scénarios de stabilisation qui résultent sont contrastés avec les résultats idéalisés. Les délais dans la date à laquelle les régions non-annexe 1 commencent à réduire les émissions ont pour effet d'accroître le prix du carbone dans les régions de l'annexe 1 par rapport au prix qui aurait lieu sous un régime idéalisé, quelle que soit la limite de concentration du CO^. Cet effet augmente en fonction du délai d'adhésion de la non-annexe 1, de la faiblesse des prix du carbone de la non-annexe 1 relatifs aux prix de l'annexe 1, et de la rigueur du niveau de stabilisation requis. L'effet de ce retard est très marqué lorsque les concentrations de CO^ sont stabilisées à 450 ppmv. cependant ii est moins prononcé au niveau de 550 ppmv et au-dessus. Pour de longs retards dans l'adhésion de la non-annexe 1, un niveau de stabilisation de 450 ppmv devient irréalisable.
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