The ObjECTS Framework for Integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation

Kim, Son H.; Edmonds, James A.; Lurz, Joshua P.; Wise, Marshall

doi:10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-volsi2006-nosi2-4

Cited by 214 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…We examine here the potential climate benefit of a SLCF strategy using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) (SI Appendix, section 3) (11). A previous version of the same model produced the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 emissions scenario being used as part of the fifth climate model intercomparison exercise (12,13).…”

Section: Scenarios and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-term climate mitigation by short-lived forcers

Smith

Mizrahi

2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Emissions reductions focused on anthropogenic climate-forcing agents with relatively short atmospheric lifetimes, such as methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon, have been suggested as a strategy to reduce the rate of climate change over the next several decades. We find that reductions of methane and black carbon would likely have only a modest impact on near-term global climate warming. Even with maximally feasible reductions phased in from 2015 to 2035, global mean temperatures in 2050 would be reduced by 0.16°C, with a range of 0.04-0.35°C because of uncertainties in carbonaceous aerosol emissions and aerosol forcing per unit of emissions. The high end of this range is only possible if total historical aerosol forcing is relatively small. More realistic emission reductions would likely provide an even smaller climate benefit. We find that the climate benefit from reductions in short-lived forcing agents are smaller than previously estimated. These nearterm climate benefits of targeted reductions in short-lived forcers are not substantially different in magnitude from the benefits from a comprehensive climate policy.M itigation focused on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) is a potentially attractive option to reduce the magnitude of anthropogenic climate change, given the potential for a shorterterm influence on climate compared with carbon dioxide mitigation (1-4). These proposals have focused on methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC), which are thought to be the two most important positive forcing agents after carbon dioxide (5, 6).Current forcing from methane, including its effect on tropospheric ozone and stratospheric water vapor, is of the order 0.65 W/m 2 , and the impact of BC was recently assessed to be 1 W/m 2 , although with very high uncertainty (6). A forcing reduction of 0.5 W/m 2 , less than a third of the central estimate for total BC and CH 4 forcing, would result in a long-term temperature decrease of 0.4°C, for a central equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3.0°C per CO 2 doubling. As discussed in SI Appendix, section 2, however, only a portion of this reduction would be realized in the short term.Although this simple calculation points to the potential benefit from SLCF mitigation, this potential is subject to many uncertainties, including the impact of coemitted pollutants and the large uncertainty in both aerosol forcing and carbonaceous aerosol emissions. With respect to BC mitigation, a critical constraint is that there is strong evidence that net aerosol forcing is negative (SI Appendix, section 6) (7-10).In addition, the potential for SLCF-focused policies must be examined within a consistent, evolving context. This is particularly true for the so-called developing world, where, in many regions, incomes are growing, and, as a result, pollution control polices are rapidly changing. In the parlance of scenarios research, this means that potential SLCF polices need to be evaluated against a consistent reference scenario, as described below. Any near-term reductions will take place within a con...

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Section: Scenarios and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Near-term climate mitigation by short-lived forcers

Smith

Mizrahi

2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…First, we used the results of the baseline calculations regarding resilience indices made by VRIM as discussed above. Second, we compared (a) the projected short-term rates of socioeconomic change from the BoydIbarrarán computable general equilibrium model (Boyd and Ibarrarán forthcoming) and (b) rates of change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC's) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000), as implemented in the integrated assessment MiniCAM model (Kim et al 2006). The SRES delayed development scenario (A2 to A1) projected by the MiniCAM integrated assessment model closely matches the projected short-term economic growth as projected by Boyd and Ibarrarán (forthcoming) through 2020-that is, around 1.9% per year between 2005 and 2020.…”

Section: Methods For Projecting Resilience In Mexicomentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change vulnerability and resilience: current status and trends for Mexico

Ibarrarán

Malone

Brenkert

2009

Environ Dev Sustain

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Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future.In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007, the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM) is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity. This paper presents two sets of results. First we show the application of the VRIM to determine statelevel resilience for Mexico, building the baseline that reflects the current status. The second part of the paper makes projections of resilience under socioeconomic and climate change and examines the varying sources and consequences of those changes. We used three tools to examine Mexico's resilience in the face of climate change, i.e., the baseline calculations regarding resilience indices made by the VRIM, the projected short-term rates of socioeconomic change from the Boyd-Ibarrarán computable general equilibrium model, and rates of the IPCC-SRES scenario projections from the integrated assessment MiniCAM model. This allows us to have available change rates for VRIM variables through the end of the 21 st century.

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“…For MiniCAM (Kim et al 2006), the emissions scenarios have been extended to 2300 (Wigley et al 2009). Beyond this, I assume no further changes in emissions.…”

Section: Non-co 2 Gasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences

Wigley

2017

Climatic Change

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The Paris Agreement states that, relative to pre-industrial times, the increase in global average temperature should be kept to well below 2°C and efforts should be made to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Emissions scenarios consistent with these targets are derived. For an eventual 2°C warming target, this could be achieved even if CO 2 emissions remained positive. For a 1.5°C target, CO 2 emissions could remain positive, but only if a substantial and long-lasting temperature overshoot is accepted. In both cases, a warming overshoot of 0.2 to 0.4°C appears unavoidable. If the allowable (or unavoidable) overshoot is small, then negative emissions are almost certainly required for the 1.5°C target, peaking at negative 1.3 GtC/year. In this scenario, temperature stabilization occurs, but cumulative emissions continue to increase, contrary to a common belief regarding the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions. Changes to the Paris Agreement to accommodate the overshoot possibility are suggested. For sea level rise, tipping points that might lead to inevitable collapse of Antarctic ice sheets or shelves might be avoided for the 2°C target (for major ice shelves) or for the 1.5°C target for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Even with the 1.5°C target, however, sea level will continue to rise at a substantial rate for centuries.

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The ObjECTS Framework for Integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation

Cited by 214 publications

References 11 publications

Near-term climate mitigation by short-lived forcers

Near-term climate mitigation by short-lived forcers

Climate change vulnerability and resilience: current status and trends for Mexico

The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences

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