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Sub‐Saharan Africa faces low agricultural productivity amid a confluence of trends that include rapid population growth, climate change, and the rise of the middle class. To raise productivity, governments—in partnership with donors and development organizations—have launched numerous initiatives to encourage the development of sustainable and competitive agricultural input markets. Despite these efforts, markets remain underdeveloped in most countries and access to affordable seeds and fertilizers remains a major challenge for smallholder farmers. This paper explores evidence from recent multicountry analyses of input delivery systems to assess the possibility of a Green Revolution in Africa. It describes use and adoption levels, challenges, policy and regulatory issues, and investments needed to expand smallholder access to these productivity‐enhancing agricultural technologies.

Kenya is one of the few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa to experience an impressive rise in fertiliser use following a series of input market reforms in the early 1990s. Two major consequences of these reforms were declining fertiliser marketing margins and distances between farmers and fertiliser dealers. We quantify the effects of these changes on commercial fertiliser use and maize production in Kenya by estimating fertiliser demand and maize supply response functions using nationwide household survey data. Our results indicate that between 1997 and 2010, the estimated 27% reduction in real fertiliser prices that can be attributed to falling marketing margins associated with market reforms led to a 36% increase in nitrogen use on maize fields and a 9% increase in maize production resulting from both yield and acreage effects. On the other hand, decreasing distances to fertiliser retailers from the perspective of a given household did not appear to raise fertiliser use or maize supply, although a comparison across households using average distances over the panel indicate that those closer to retailers do apply more fertiliser on their maize fields.

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