Quantifying the impact of density, extrinsic climatic fluctuations, and demography on population fluctuations is a persistent challenge in ecology. We analyzed the effect of these processes on the irregular pattern of population crashes of Soay sheep on the St. Kilda archipelago, United Kingdom. Because the age and sex structure of the population fluctuates independently of population size, and because animals of different age and sex respond in different ways to density and weather, identical weather conditions can result in different dynamics in populations of equal size. In addition, the strength of density-dependent processes is a function of the distribution of weather events. Incorporating demographic heterogeneities into population models can influence dynamics and their response to climate change.

Parasites are thought to provide a selective force capable of promoting genetic variation in natural populations. One rarely considered pathway for this action is via parasite-mediated selection against inbreeding. If parasites impose a fitness cost on their host and the offspring of close relatives have greater susceptibility to parasites due to the increased homozygosity that results from inbreeding, then parasite-mediated mortality may select against inbred individuals. This hypothesis has not yet been tested within a natural vertebrate population. Here we show that relatively inbred Soay sheep (Ovis aries), as assessed by microsatellite heterozygosity, are more susceptible to parasitism by gastrointestinal nematodes, with interactions indicating greatest susceptibility among adult sheep at high population density. During periods of high overwinter mortality on the island of Hirta, St. Kilda, Scotland, highly parasitised individuals were less likely to survive. More inbred individuals were also less likely to survive, which is due to their increased susceptibility to parasitism, because survival was random with respect to inbreeding among sheep that were experimentally cleared of their gastrointestinal parasite burden by anthelminthic treatment. As a consequence of this selection, average microsatellite heterozygosity increases with age in St. Kildan Soay sheep. We suggest that parasitemediated selection acts to maintain genetic variation in this small island population by removing less heterozygous individuals.

in all months, and mean precipitation increased in most months (Fig. 2a). 68Spatial variability in climatic change (Fig. 2b,c), necessitates local matching of phenological 69 and climatic datasets rather than the use of regionally-averaged climate data (e.g. Central 70England Temperatures) or large-scale climatic indicators (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation). 71We did not make the restrictive assumption that biological events would be related to annual CSP precip varied less among trophic levels than the upper limit (Fig. 3d,f) consumers were less than those for primary consumers (Fig. 5a). This occurred because, 195averaged across species, the opposing climate responses of primary producers and secondary 196consumers are more similar in magnitude than are those for primary consumers (Fig. 3), 197 effectively "cancelling each other out". Our models suggest greater average advances for 198 crustacea, fish and insects than for other groups, such as freshwater phytoplankton, birds and 199 mammals (Fig. 5b). However, response-variation is high for crustacea (Fig. 5b). not estimated for marine plankton data (see above), and so the second-phase LME models 441 were run twice: once to examine correlations with temperature and precipitation for all but 442 the marine plankton phenological series (9,800 series), and once to examine only correlations 443 with temperature for the whole data set (10,003 series).

We present estimates of the selection on and the heritability of a male secondary sexual weapon in a wild population: antler size in red deer. Male red deer with large antlers had increased lifetime breeding success, both before and after correcting for body size, generating a standardized selection gradient of 0.44 (+/- 0.18 SE). Despite substantial age- and environment-related variation, antler size was also heritable (heritability of antler mass = 0.33 +/- 0.12). However the observed selection did not generate an evolutionary response in antler size over the study period of nearly 30 years, and there was no evidence of a positive genetic correlation between antler size and fitness nor of a positive association between breeding values for antler size and fitness. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that a heritable trait under directional selection will not evolve if associations between the measured trait and fitness are determined by environmental covariances: In red deer males, for example, both antler size and success in the fights for mates may be heavily dependent on an individual's nutritional state.

No abstract

Large-scale climatic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation are associated with population dynamics, variation in demographic rates and values of phenotypic traits in many species. Paradoxically, these large-scale indices can seem to be better predictors of ecological processes than local climate. Using detailed data from a population of Soay sheep, we show that high rainfall, high winds or low temperatures at any time during a 3-month period can cause mortality either immediately or lagged by a few days. Most measures of local climate used by ecologists fail to capture such complex associations between weather and ecological process, and this may help to explain why large-scale, seasonal indices of climate spanning several months can outperform local climatic factors. Furthermore, we show why an understanding of the mechanism by which climate influences population ecology is important. Through simulation we demonstrate that the timing of bad weather within a period of mortality can have an important modifying influence on intraspecific competition for food, revealing an interaction between climate and density dependence that the use of large-scale climatic indices or inappropriate local weather variables might obscure.

The ¢tness consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding are poorly understood in natural populations. We explore two microsatellite-based variables, individual heterozygosity (likely to correlate with recent inbreeding) and a new individual-speci¢c internal distance measure, mean d 2 (focusing on events deeper in the pedigree), in relation to two measures of ¢tness expressed early in life, birth weight and neonatal survival, in 670 red deer calves (Cervus elaphus) born on the Isle of Rum between 1982 and 1996. For comparison, we also analyse inbreeding coe¤cients derived from pedigrees in which paternity was inferred by molecular methods.Only 14 out of 231 calves (6.1%) had non-zero inbreeding coe¤cients, and neither inbreeding coe¤cient nor individual heterozygosity was consistently related to birth weight or neonatal survival. However, mean d 2 was consistently related to both ¢tness measures. Low mean d 2 was associated with low birth weight, especially following cold Aprils, in which foetal growth is reduced. Low mean d 2 was also associated with low neonatal survival, but this e¡ect was probably mediated by birth weight because ¢tting birth weight to the neonatal survival model displaced mean d 2 as an explanatory variable. We conclude that in the deer population ¢tness measures expressed early in life do not show evidence of inbreeding depression, but they do show evidence of heterosis, possibly as a result of population mixing. We also demonstrate the practical problems of estimating inbreeding via pedigrees compared with a direct marker-based estimate of individual heterozygosity. We suggest that, together, individual heterozygosity and mean d 2 , estimated using microsatellites, are useful tools for exploring inbreeding and outbreeding in natural populations.

Classical population genetics theory predicts that selection should deplete heritable genetic variance for fitness. We show here that, consistent with this prediction, there was a negative correlation between the heritability of a trait and its association with fitness in a wild population of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and there was no evidence of significant heritability of total fitness. However, the decline in heritability was caused, at least in part, by increased levels of residual variance in longevity and, hence, in total fitness: in this population, longevity is known to be heavily influenced by environmental factors. Other life history traits that were not associated with longevity, such as average annual breeding success, had higher heritabilities. Coefficients of additive genetic variance differed markedly between traits, but highly skewed measures, such as male breeding success, generally had greater coefficients of variance than morphometric traits. Finally, there were significant maternal effects in a range of traits, particularly for females.