No abstract

Uganda aspires to become "a transformed society from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years". This aspiration and the targeted steps to be taken to achieve it are laid down in a document titled Uganda Vision 2040. Industrialisation is considered to be one of the avenues to use to achieve this Vision, despite the fact that the country has made a number of efforts to promote industrialisation in the past, which have not yielded positive results. Reviewed here are the efforts that have been made to this regard since its independence and short falls highlighted. These efforts are compared with the East Asian countries' efforts towards industrialisation to note what policy makers and investors can do better in order to have industrialisation work for a country like Uganda. The comparison is based on the fact that these countries were at almost the same economic level of development in the 1960s and therefore there is a need to learn lessons of what was done differently. The country needs to develop a stepwise approach to industrialisation that can guide all efforts towards a common agenda.

Uganda aspires to exploit its abundant iron ore resources to supply the required raw material for developing its iron and steel industry across all the phases of the value chain. The country imports USD 369 million worth of iron and steel products annually, 60% of which are raw materials for the steel processing plants. The National Planning Authority, the government planning agency, undertook a study to assess the possibility of using the iron ore deposits available in the country, as a source of supply for iron and steel production. In the study, available geological literature was collected from various sources and analysed in order to understand the mode of iron ore mineralization in Uganda, particularly, that in the South West. A field excursion to the deposits was conducted in order to ground truth the information obtained from literature research; carry out a detailed reconnaissance study so as to benchmark the likely scenarios required in the development of the iron and steel value chain; and establish the likely mining and processing requirements of the deposits. The reconnaissance survey confirmed the existence of hematite deposits that visually show characteristics of high-quality iron ore (55% -68% Fe) suitable for iron production. From surficial investigations, the deposits are mainly comprised of thin beds of mineralisation. The deposits occur in the form of massive hematite, which is amenable to mining and direct feed to the ore processing plants, and specularite hematite (a metamorphic platy variety), which normally requires mineral processing for amenability to reduction processes. From the analysis, the country has sufficient deposits of a high grade that can support a steel industry, though more detailed quantifications and characterisations need to be prioritised by the government.

The iron and steel industry is critical in driving the industrialisation agenda of 3 rd world economies like Uganda and there is need to understand its growth trends in order to inform the required investments in the medium to long-term. The Capability Model and the system of equations of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGEs) were employed to forecast the growth trends of Uganda's iron and steel production and consumption (2019-2024). The results of the study show that liquid steel production can be increased from 210,000 tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes per annum by 2024 with measures of industry sustenance and infrastructure investments put in place. Even though there is projected to be an initial fluctuation between 2020 and 2022, due to interruptions during the period of technological upgrade, there is on average, a distinctive steel production growth over the next 5 years. The study recommends fast-tracking the highlighted public and private sector investments in domestic iron and steel production.

The importance of cooperatives as an appropriate mechanism to address productivity challenges and drive Uganda’s economy for socio-economic transformation is commonly advanced. However, the discussion and efforts on how this should be achieved are weak. Efforts that have been undertaken by the Government, Private players, Civil Society and Development Partners have not yielded much to unlock the potential of the cooperatives in fostering development, enhancing production, productivity, and socio-economic transformation. This is attributed to weaknesses of the prerequisites necessary for the vibrancy of cooperatives namely the: culture of cooperation and trust among cooperators; legal, policy, and regulatory framework for cooperatives; cooperatives’ enabling institutions; prevailing socio-economic environment; and the political economy. This paper uses a multi-dimensional methodology that includes learning from literature; case study analysis; expert-focused interviews; field studies, and; survey questionnaire administration of various types of cooperatives. To this end, the paper defines a framework under which Uganda should strengthen and sustainably regulate its cooperative movement to unlock its potential to drive its socio-economic transformation. In particular, a novel cooperatives’ viability condition in a liberalized market is developed.