The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere -the "global carbon budget" -is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ , reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015), E FF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , E LUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , G ATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 . For year 2015 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr −1 that took place during 2006-2015. Also, for 2015, E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , G ATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 . G ATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015), reflecting a smaller S LAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in E FF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product correc...
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO 2 emissions from fossil Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 47-85, 2015 www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/7/47/2015/ C. Le Quéré et al.: Global carbon budget 2014 49 fuel combustion and cement production (E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in S OCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO 2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO 2 , and land-coverchange (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ , reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013), E FF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 , E LUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , G ATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 . For year 2013 alone, E FF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , 2.3 % above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, E LUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , G ATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 . G ATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in E FF and smaller and opposite changes between S OCEAN and S LAND compared to the past decade (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013). The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that E FF will increase by 2.5 % (1.3-3.5 %) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2...
A new feature is the data set quality control (QC) flag of E for data from alternative sensors and platforms. The accuracy of surface water f CO 2 has been defined for all data set QC flags. Automated range checking has been carried out for all data sets during their upload into SOCAT. The upgrade of the interactive Data Set Viewer (previously known as the Cruise Data Viewer) allows better interrogation of the SOCAT data collection and rapid creation of high-quality figures for scientific presentations. Automated data upload has been launched for version 4 and will enable more frequent SOCAT releases in the future. Highprofile scientific applications of SOCAT include quantification of the ocean sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and its long-term variation, detection of ocean acidification, as well as evaluation of coupled-climate and ocean-only biogeochemical models. Users of SOCAT data products are urged to acknowledge the contribution of data providers, as stated in the SOCAT Fair Data Use Statement. This ESSD (Earth System Science Data) "living data" publication documents the methods and data sets used for the assembly of this new version of the SOCAT data collection and compares these with those used for earlier versions of the data collection Sabine et al., 2013;Bakker et al., 2014). Individual data set files, included in the synthesis product, can be downloaded here: doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849770. The gridded products are available here:
Multiple natural and anthropogenic processes alter the carbonate chemistry of the coastal zone in ways that either exacerbate or mitigate ocean acidification effects. Freshwater inputs and multiple acid-base reactions change carbonate chemistry conditions, sometimes synergistically. The shallow nature of these systems results in strong benthic-pelagic coupling, and marine invertebrates at different life history stages rely on both benthic and pelagic habitats. Carbonate chemistry in coastal systems can be highly variable, responding to processes with temporal modes ranging from seconds to centuries. Identifying scales of variability relevant to levels of biological organization requires a fuller characterization of both the frequency and magnitude domains of processes contributing to or reducing acidification in pelagic and benthic habitats. We review the processes that contribute to coastal acidification with attention to timescales of variability and habitats relevant to marine bivalves.
Increasing atmospheric CO2 is likely to cause a corresponding increase in oceanic acidity by lowering pH by 0.20.5 pH units by the end of the 21st century [Royal Society, 2005]. In light of increasing acidity, there are growing concerns about the future health of a variety of marine organisms, particularly shellfish, which in the United States is a $1.6 billion industry. Shellfish predominantly inhabit coastal regions, and in addition to the projected stress caused by the global trend in ocean acidification, some coastal ecosystems receive persistent or episodic acid inputs as a result of interactions with river water, bottom sediments, or atmospheric deposition of terrigenous materials. Most river plumes are acidic relative to the receiving ocean, and river water is mixed extensively over the continental shelf. Moreover, the chemical nature and magnitude of discharge are changing rapidly due to climate change and land‐use practices.
[1] Underway and in situ observations of surface ocean pCO 2 , combined with satellite data, were used to develop pCO 2 regional algorithms to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of surface ocean pCO 2 and sea-air CO 2 flux for five physically and biologically distinct regions of the eastern North American continental shelf: the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), the Gulf of Maine (GoM), Nantucket Shoals and Georges Bank (NSþGB), and the Scotian Shelf (SS). Temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon variability are the most influential factors driving the seasonality of pCO 2 . Estimates of the sea-air CO 2 flux were derived from the available pCO 2 data, as well as from the pCO 2 reconstructed by the algorithm. Two different gas exchange parameterizations were used. The SS, GBþNS, MAB, and SAB regions are net sinks of atmospheric CO 2 while the GoM is a weak source. The estimates vary depending on the use of surface ocean pCO 2 from the data or algorithm, as well as with the use of the two different gas exchange parameterizations. Most of the regional estimates are in general agreement with previous studies when the range of uncertainty and interannual variability are taken into account. According to the algorithm, the average annual uptake of atmospheric CO 2 by eastern North American continental shelf waters is found to be between À3.4 and À5.4 Tg C yr À1 (areal average of À0.7 to À1.0 mol CO 2 m À2 yr À1 ) over the period
Carbon cycling in the coastal zone affects global carbon budgets and is critical for understanding the urgent issues of hypoxia, acidification, and tidal wetland loss. However, there are no regional carbon budgets spanning the three main ecosystems in coastal waters: tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters. Here we construct such a budget for eastern North America using historical data, empirical models, remote sensing algorithms, and process‐based models. Considering the net fluxes of total carbon at the domain boundaries, 59 ± 12% (± 2 standard errors) of the carbon entering is from rivers and 41 ± 12% is from the atmosphere, while 80 ± 9% of the carbon leaving is exported to the open ocean and 20 ± 9% is buried. Net lateral carbon transfers between the three main ecosystem types are comparable to fluxes at the domain boundaries. Each ecosystem type contributes substantially to exchange with the atmosphere, with CO2 uptake split evenly between tidal wetlands and shelf waters, and estuarine CO2 outgassing offsetting half of the uptake. Similarly, burial is about equal in tidal wetlands and shelf waters, while estuaries play a smaller but still substantial role. The importance of tidal wetlands and estuaries in the overall budget is remarkable given that they, respectively, make up only 2.4 and 8.9% of the study domain area. This study shows that coastal carbon budgets should explicitly include tidal wetlands, estuaries, shelf waters, and the linkages between them; ignoring any of them may produce a biased picture of coastal carbon cycling.
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