No abstract

Changes in iron supply to oceanic plankton are thought to have a significant effect on concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide by altering rates of carbon sequestration, a theory known as the 'iron hypothesis'. For this reason, it is important to understand the response of pelagic biota to increased iron supply. Here we report the results of a mesoscale iron fertilization experiment in the polar Southern Ocean, where the potential to sequester iron-elevated algal carbon is probably greatest. Increased iron supply led to elevated phytoplankton biomass and rates of photosynthesis in surface waters, causing a large drawdown of carbon dioxide and macronutrients, and elevated dimethyl sulphide levels after 13 days. This drawdown was mostly due to the proliferation of diatom stocks. But downward export of biogenic carbon was not increased. Moreover, satellite observations of this massive bloom 30 days later, suggest that a sufficient proportion of the added iron was retained in surface waters. Our findings demonstrate that iron supply controls phytoplankton growth and community composition during summer in these polar Southern Ocean waters, but the fate of algal carbon remains unknown and depends on the interplay between the processes controlling export, remineralisation and timescales of water mass subduction.

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

We present a new observation-based estimate of the global oceanic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink and its temporal variation on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2011 and at a spatial resolution of 1×1. This sink estimate rests upon a neural network-based mapping of global surface ocean observations of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas database. The resulting pCO2 has small biases when evaluated against independent observations in the different ocean basins, but larger randomly distributed differences exist particularly in high latitudes. The seasonal climatology of our neural network-based product agrees overall well with the Takahashi et al. (2009) climatology, although our product produces a stronger seasonal cycle at high latitudes. From our global pCO2 product, we compute a mean net global ocean (excluding the Arctic Ocean and coastal regions) CO2 uptake flux of −1.42 ± 0.53 Pg C yr−1, which is in good agreement with ocean inversion-based estimates. Our data indicate a moderate level of interannual variability in the ocean carbon sink (±0.12 Pg C yr−1, 1𝜎) from 1998 through 2011, mostly originating from the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and associated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation. Accounting for steady state riverine and Arctic Ocean carbon fluxes our estimate further implies a mean anthropogenic CO2 uptake of −1.99 ± 0.59 Pg C yr−1 over the analysis period. From this estimate plus the most recent estimates for fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric CO2 accumulation, we infer a mean global land sink of −2.82 ± 0.85 Pg C yr−1 over the 1998 through 2011 period with strong interannual variation

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere -the "global carbon budget" -is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (E FF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (E LUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G ATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO 2 sink (S OCEAN ) and terrestrial CO 2 sink (S LAND ) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ . For the last decade available (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016), E FF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , E LUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , G ATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr −1 , with a budget imbalance B IM of 0.6 GtC yr −1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in E FF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 . Also for 2016, E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , G ATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr −1 , S OCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 , and S LAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr −1 , with a small B IM of −0.3 GtC. G ATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015)(2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small S LAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in E FF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al

Comparison of eight iron experiments shows that maximum Chl a, the maximum DIC removal, and the overall DIC/Fe efficiency all scale inversely with depth of the wind mixed layer (WML) defining the light environment. Moreover, lateral patch dilution, sea surface irradiance, temperature, and grazing play additional roles. The Southern Ocean experiments were most influenced by very deep WMLs. In contrast, light conditions were most favorable during SEEDS and SERIES as well as during IronEx‐2. The two extreme experiments, EisenEx and SEEDS, can be linked via EisenEx bottle incubations with shallower simulated WML depth. Large diatoms always benefit the most from Fe addition, where a remarkably small group of thriving diatom species is dominated by universal response of Pseudo‐nitzschia spp. Significant response of these moderate (10–30 μm), medium (30–60 μm), and large (>60 μm) diatoms is consistent with growth physiology determined for single species in natural seawater. The minimum level of “dissolved” Fe (filtrate < 0.2 μm) maintained during an experiment determines the dominant diatom size class. However, this is further complicated by continuous transfer of original truly dissolved reduced Fe(II) into the colloidal pool, which may constitute some 75% of the “dissolved” pool. Depth integration of carbon inventory changes partly compensates the adverse effects of a deep WML due to its greater integration depths, decreasing the differences in responses between the eight experiments. About half of depth‐integrated overall primary productivity is reflected in a decrease of DIC. The overall C/Fe efficiency of DIC uptake is DIC/Fe ∼ 5600 for all eight experiments. The increase of particulate organic carbon is about a quarter of the primary production, suggesting food web losses for the other three quarters. Replenishment of DIC by air/sea exchange tends to be a minor few percent of primary CO2 fixation but will continue well after observations have stopped. Export of carbon into deeper waters is difficult to assess and is until now firmly proven and quite modest in only two experiments.

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.8 GtC yr−1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021 suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.8 % (4.2 % to 5.4 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2020, 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021).

Several studies have suggested that the carbon sink in the Southern Oceanthe ocean's strongest region for uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 -has weakened in recent decades. Here, we demonstrate on the basis of multi-decadal analyses 1