Several studies have suggested that the carbon sink in the Southern Oceanthe ocean's strongest region for uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 -has weakened in recent decades. Here, we demonstrate on the basis of multi-decadal analyses 1

Recent salinity changes in the Southern Ocean are among the most prominent signals of climate change in the global ocean, yet their underlying causes have not been firmly established. Here we propose that trends in the northward transport of Antarctic sea ice are a major contributor to these changes. Using satellite observations supplemented by sea-ice reconstructions, we estimate that wind-driven northward freshwater transport by sea ice increased by 20 ± 10 per cent between 1982 and 2008. The strongest and most robust increase occurred in the Pacific sector, coinciding with the largest observed salinity changes. We estimate that the additional freshwater for the entire northern sea-ice edge entails a freshening rate of -0.02 ± 0.01 grams per kilogram per decade in the surface and intermediate waters of the open ocean, similar to the observed freshening. The enhanced rejection of salt near the coast of Antarctica associated with stronger sea-ice export counteracts the freshening of both continental shelf and newly formed bottom waters due to increases in glacial meltwater. Although the data sources underlying our results have substantial uncertainties, regional analyses and independent data from an atmospheric reanalysis support our conclusions. Our finding that northward sea-ice freshwater transport is also a key determinant of the mean salinity distribution in the Southern Ocean further underpins the importance of the sea-ice-induced freshwater flux. Through its influence on the density structure of the ocean, this process has critical consequences for the global climate by affecting the exchange of heat, carbon and nutrients between the deep ocean and surface waters.

[1] We describe the evolution of Arctic sea ice as modeled by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The modeled spatial distribution and interannual variability of the sea-ice cover agree well with satellite observations and are improved relative to the model's predecessor ECHAM5/MPIOM. An evaluation of modeled sea-ice coverage based on sea-ice area gives, however, conflicting results compared to an evaluation based on sea-ice extent and is additionally hindered by uncertainties in the observational record. Simulated trends in sea-ice coverage for the satellite period range from more strongly negative than observed to positive. The observed evolution of Arctic sea ice is incompatible with modeled internal variability and probably caused by external forcing. Simulated drift patterns agree well with observations, but simulated drift speed is generally too high. Simulated sea-ice volume agrees well with volume estimates of the PIOMAS reanalysis for the past few years. However, a preceding Arctic wide decrease in sea-ice volume starts much earlier in MPI-ESM than in PIOMAS. Analyzing this behavior in MPI-ESM's ocean model MPIOM, we find that the modeled volume trend depends crucially on the specific choice of atmospheric reanalysis forcing, which casts some doubt on the reliability of estimates of volume trends. In our CMIP5 scenario simulations, we find a substantial delay in sea-ice response to increasing CO 2 concentration; a seasonally ice-free Arctic can result for a CO 2 concentration of around 500 ppm. Simulated winter sea-ice coverage drops rapidly to near ice-free conditions once the mean Arctic winter temperature exceeds 25 C. , 5, 173-194,

Abstract. In contrast to the Arctic, where total sea ice extent (SIE) has been decreasing for the last three decades, Antarctic SIE has shown a small, but significant, increase during the same time period. However, in 2016, an unusually early onset of the melt season was observed; the maximum Antarctic SIE was already reached as early as August rather than the end of September, and was followed by a rapid decrease. The decay was particularly strong in November, when Antarctic SIE exhibited a negative anomaly (compared to the 1979–2015 average) of approximately 2 million km2. ECMWF Interim reanalysis data showed that the early onset of the melt and the rapid decrease in sea ice area (SIA) and SIE were associated with atmospheric flow patterns related to a positive zonal wave number three (ZW3) index, i.e., synoptic situations leading to strong meridional flow and anomalously strong southward heat advection in the regions of strongest sea ice decline. A persistently positive ZW3 index from May to August suggests that SIE decrease was preconditioned by SIA decrease. In particular, in the first third of November northerly flow conditions in the Weddell Sea and the Western Pacific triggered accelerated sea ice decay, which was continued in the following weeks due to positive feedback effects, leading to the unusually low November SIE. In 2016, the monthly mean Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index reached its second lowest November value since the beginning of the satellite observations. A better spatial and temporal coverage of reliable ice thickness data is needed to assess the change in ice mass rather than ice area.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) supplies the lower limb of the global overturning circulation, ventilates the abyssal ocean and sequesters heat and carbon on multidecadal to millennial timescales. AABW originates on the Antarctic continental shelf, where strong winter cooling and brine released during sea ice formation produce Dense Shelf Water, which sinks to the deep ocean. The salinity, density and volume of AABW have decreased over the last 50 years, with the most marked changes observed in the Ross Sea. These changes have been attributed to increased melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we use in situ observations to document a recovery in the salinity, density and thickness (that is, depth range) of AABW formed in the Ross Sea, with properties in 2018-2019 similar to those observed in the 1990s. The recovery was caused by increased sea ice formation on the continental shelf. Increased sea ice formation was triggered by anomalous wind forcing associated with the unusual combination of positive Southern Annular Mode and extreme El Niño conditions between 2015 and 2018. Our study highlights the sensitivity of AABW formation to remote forcing and shows that climate anomalies can drive episodic increases in local sea ice formation that counter the tendency for increased ice-sheet melt to reduce AABW formation.

Abstract. The biogeography of Southern Ocean phytoplankton controls the local biogeochemistry and the export of macronutrients to lower latitudes and depth. Of particular relevance is the competitive interaction between coccolithophores and diatoms, with the former being prevalent along the “Great Calcite Belt” (40–60∘ S), while diatoms tend to dominate the regions south of 60∘ S. To address the factors controlling coccolithophore distribution and the competition between them and diatoms, we use a regional high-resolution model (ROMS–BEC) for the Southern Ocean (24–78∘ S) that has been extended to include an explicit representation of coccolithophores. We assess the relative importance of bottom-up (temperature, nutrients, light) and top-down (grazing by zooplankton) factors in controlling Southern Ocean coccolithophore biogeography over the course of the growing season. In our simulations, coccolithophores are an important member of the Southern Ocean phytoplankton community, contributing 17 % to annually integrated net primary productivity south of 30∘ S. Coccolithophore biomass is highest north of 50∘ S in late austral summer, when light levels are high and diatoms become limited by silicic acid. Furthermore, we find top-down factors to be a major control on the relative abundance of diatoms and coccolithophores in the Southern Ocean. Consequently, when assessing potential future changes in Southern Ocean coccolithophore abundance, both abiotic (temperature, light, and nutrients) and biotic factors (interaction with diatoms and zooplankton) need to be considered.

From 1.25 million to 700,000 years ago, the ice age cycle deepened and lengthened from 41,000- to 100,000-year periodicity, a transition that remains unexplained. Using surface- and bottom-dwelling foraminifera from the Antarctic Zone of the Southern Ocean to reconstruct the deep-to-surface supply of water during the ice ages of the past 1.5 million years, we found that a reduction in deep water supply and a concomitant freshening of the surface ocean coincided with the emergence of the high-amplitude 100,000-year glacial cycle. We propose that this slowing of deep-to-surface circulation (i.e., a longer residence time for Antarctic surface waters) prolonged ice ages by allowing the Antarctic halocline to strengthen, which increased the resistance of the Antarctic upper water column to orbitally paced drivers of carbon dioxide release.

Two decades into the 21st century there is growing evidence for global impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate change. Reliable estimates of how the Antarctic climate system would behave under a range of scenarios of future external climate forcing are thus a high priority. Output from new model simulations coordinated as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides an opportunity for a comprehensive analysis of the latest generation of state‐of‐the‐art climate models following a wider range of experiment types and scenarios than previous CMIP phases. Here the main broad‐scale 21st century Antarctic projections provided by the CMIP6 models are shown across four forcing scenarios: SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5. End‐of‐century Antarctic surface‐air temperature change across these scenarios (relative to 1995–2014) is 1.3, 2.5, 3.7 and 4.8°C. The corresponding proportional precipitation rate changes are 8, 16, 24 and 31%. In addition to these end‐of‐century changes, an assessment of scenario dependence of pathways of absolute and global‐relative 21st century projections is conducted. Potential differences in regional response are of particular relevance to coastal Antarctica, where, for example, ecosystems and ice shelves are highly sensitive to the timing of crossing of key thresholds in both atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Overall, it is found that the projected changes over coastal Antarctica do not scale linearly with global forcing. We identify two factors that appear to contribute: (a) a stronger global‐relative Southern Ocean warming in stabilisation (SSP2‐4.5) and aggressive mitigation (SSP1‐2.6) scenarios as the Southern Ocean continues to warm and (b) projected recovery of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric ozone and its effect on the mid‐latitude westerlies. The major implication is that over coastal Antarctica, the surface warming by 2100 is stronger relative to the global mean surface warming for the low forcing compared to high forcing future scenarios.