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BackgroundWhole genome sequencing provides better delineation of transmission clusters in Mycobacterium tuberculosis than traditional methods. However, its ability to reveal individual transmission links within clusters is limited. Here, we used a 2-step approach based on Bayesian transmission reconstruction to (1) identify likely index and missing cases, (2) determine risk factors associated with transmitters, and (3) estimate when transmission happened.Methods and findingsWe developed our transmission reconstruction method using genomic and epidemiological data from a population-based study from Valencia Region, Spain. Tuberculosis (TB) incidence during the study period was 8.4 cases per 100,000 people. While the study is ongoing, the sampling frame for this work includes notified TB cases between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016. We identified a total of 21 transmission clusters that fulfilled the criteria for analysis. These contained a total of 117 individuals diagnosed with active TB (109 with epidemiological data). Demographic characteristics of the study population were as follows: 80/109 (73%) individuals were Spanish-born, 76/109 (70%) individuals were men, and the mean age was 42.51 years (SD 18.46). We found that 66/109 (61%) TB patients were sputum positive at diagnosis, and 10/109 (9%) were HIV positive. We used the data to reveal individual transmission links, and to identify index cases, missing cases, likely transmitters, and associated transmission risk factors. Our Bayesian inference approach suggests that at least 60% of index cases are likely misidentified by local public health. Our data also suggest that factors associated with likely transmitters are different to those of simply being in a transmission cluster, highlighting the importance of differentiating between these 2 phenomena. Our data suggest that type 2 diabetes mellitus is a risk factor associated with being a transmitter (odds ratio 0.19 [95% CI 0.02–1.10], p < 0.003). Finally, we used the most likely timing for transmission events to study when TB transmission occurred; we identified that 5/14 (35.7%) cases likely transmitted TB well before symptom onset, and these were largely sputum negative at diagnosis. Limited within-cluster diversity does not allow us to extrapolate our findings to the whole TB population in Valencia Region.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that index cases are often misidentified, with downstream consequences for epidemiological investigations because likely transmitters can be missed. Our findings regarding inferred transmission timing suggest that TB transmission can occur before patient symptom onset, suggesting also that TB transmits during sub-clinical disease. This result has direct implications for diagnosing TB and reducing transmission. Overall, we show that a transition to individual-based genomic epidemiology will likely close some of the knowledge gaps in TB transmission and may redirect efforts towards cost-effective contact investigations for improved TB control.

Our aim was to evaluate the reverse transcription and polymerase chain reaction (RT/PCR) technique for the detection of rotavirus shedding by infected children as a routine diagnostic procedure, in comparison to the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), electron microscopy (EM) and polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) of rotavirus double-stranded RNA. Two-hundred and twenty stool specimens were collected from infants and young children with diarrhoea, and 10-20% faecal suspensions were made. Several methods of rotavirus dsRNA extraction were assayed. Electrophoretic analysis of viral RNA was carried out on 10% polyacrylamide gels followed by silver staining. RT/PCR was performed using oligonucleotide primers specific for both 3' and 5' ends of the rotavirus gene encoding VP7 which are highly conserved among group A rotaviruses. Following RNA extraction with phenol-chloroform and ethanol precipitation, RT/PCR could detect rotaviral RNA in only 11 of 25 samples known to contain rotaviruses by conventional methods. The purification of RNA extracts by CF11 cellulose and the application of the RNAID method were equally effective in extracting RNA and/or removing inhibitory substances from the faecal samples. RT/PCR led to the detection of 66 positive samples from 220 specimens tested (30%), whilst 64 specimens were positive by ELISA (29%), 59 (26.8%) by PAGE and 56 (25.4%) by EM. In our study, RT/PCR was 100 times more sensitive than the ELISA test in detecting rotaviruses serially diluted in a faecal suspension. Although RT/PCR is theoretically much more sensitive than ELISA, PAGE and EM for detection of rotaviruses, great care must be taken to remove inhibitory substances from the enzymatic reactions. We do not consider that RT/PCR should replace immunoassays with high sensitivity and specificity for rotavirus testing in faecal samples, although this technique has other applications, like the search for rotavirus in different clinical specimens (sera, cerebrospinal fluid, respiratory secretions, etc.) and in environmental samples, as well as the typing of viral strains using serotype-specific primers.

The highest percentage of recent infection was identified in MSM, suggesting either a higher incidence or a greater frequency of HIV testing. Information regarding testing patterns is necessary to correctly interpret data from recently infected individuals. Systems to monitor the HIV epidemic should include both parameters.

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