Abstract. As global warming is proceeding due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves towards climate states that challenge adaptation. Past Earth system states are offering possible modelling systems for the global warming of the coming decades. These include the climate of the mid-Pliocene (∼ 3 Ma), the last interglacial (∼ 129–116 ka) and the mid-Holocene (∼ 6 ka). The simulations for these past warm periods are the key experiments in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, contributing to phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a robust out-of-sample test bed of the climate models used to project future climate changes. Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the large-scale features from the simulations for the mid-Holocene, the last interglacial and the mid-Pliocene. Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show global temperature changes, large-scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming, global monsoons and the climate variability modes – El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate responses during past warm periods, as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in past three warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the model's ability to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with the EC-Earth model.

Abstract. Paleoclimate modelling has long been regarded as a strong out-of-sample test-bed of the climate models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. For the first time, the EC-Earth model contributes to the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, which is part of the current sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the results on the large-scale features from the completed production simulations for the three past warm periods (mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial, and mid-Pliocene). Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show the changes in global temperature, large scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming and global monsoons, as well as the climate variability modes (ENSO, PDO, AMO). The EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate responses during past warm periods as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in three past warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the ability of the model to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with EC-Earth model.

Abstract. The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a vital role in the livelihoods and economy of those living on the Indian subcontinent, including the small, mountainous country of Bhutan. The ISM fluctuates over varying temporal scales and its variability is related to many internal and external factors including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In 2015, a Super El Niño occurred in the tropical Pacific alongside a positive IOD in the Indian Ocean and was followed in 2016 by a simultaneous La Niña and negative IOD. These events had worldwide repercussions. However, it is unclear how the ISM was affected during this time, both at a regional scale over the whole ISM area and at a local scale over Bhutan. First, an evaluation of data products comparing ERA5 reanalysis, TRMM and GPM satellite, and GPCC precipitation products against weather station measurements from Bhutan, indicated that ERA5 reanalysis was suitable to investigate ISM change in these two years. The reanalysis datasets showed that there was disruption to the ISM during this period, with a late onset of the monsoon in 2015, a shifted monsoon flow in July 2015 and in August 2016, and a late withdrawal in 2016. However, this resulted in neither a monsoon surplus nor a deficit across both years but instead large spatial-temporal variability. It is possible to attribute some of the regional scale changes to the ENSO and IOD events, but the expected impact of a simultaneous ENSO and IOD events are not recognizable. It is likely that 2015/16 monsoon disruption was driven by a combination of factors alongside ENSO and the IOD, including varying boundary conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, and more. At a local scale, the intricate topography and orographic processes ongoing within Bhutan further amplified or dampened the already altered ISM.

Paleoclimate proxy data indicate a stronger Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) than in the present day. This is largely attributed to orbital forcing induced high seasonal and latitudinal insolation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during LIG. According to the general circulation model EC‐Earth3, the simulated ISM rainfall is increased by approximately 28% during the LIG compared to the pre‐industrial period as a result of the orbital forcing and the amplified land‐sea contrast due to both local and remote ocean feedbacks. Although the LIG is often portrayed as a potential analogue of future warmer climates, our study suggests that the enhanced inter‐hemispheric thermal gradient during the LIG strengthened the ISM, in opposition to the observed weakening of ISM under present‐day warming.

Irregular climate events frequently occur in Southeast Asia due to the numerous climate patterns combining. Thailand sits at the confluence of these interactions, and consequently experiences major hydrological events, such as droughts. Proxy data, speleothem records, lake sediment sequences and tree ring chronologies were used to reconstruct paleo drought conditions. These trends were compared with modelled and historic El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data to assess if the ENSO climate phenomena is causing droughts in Thailand. Drought periods were found to occur both during El Niño events and ENSO neutral conditions. This indicates droughts are not a product of one climate pattern, but likely the result of numerous patterns interacting. There is uncertainty regarding how climate patterns will evolve under climate change, but changes in amplitude and variability could potentially lead to more frequent and wider reaching hydrological disasters. It is vital that policies are implemented to cope with the resulting social and economic repercussions, including diversification of crops and reorganisation of water consumption behaviour in Thailand.

Glacier mass balance is heavily influenced by climate, with responses of individual glaciers to various climate parameters varying greatly. In northern Sweden, Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance has decreased since it started being monitored in 1982. To relate Rabots Glaciär’s mass balance to changes in climate, the sensitivity to a range of parameters is computed. Through linear regression of mass balance with temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and incoming radiation the climate sensitivity is established and projections for future summer mass balance are made. Summer mass balance is primarily sensitive to temperature at −0.31 m w.e. per °C change, while winter mass balance is mainly sensitive to precipitation at 0.94 m w.e. per % change. An estimate using summer temperature sensitivity projects a dramatic decrease in summer mass balance to −3.89 m w.e. for the 2091–2100 period under climate scenario RCP8.5. With large increases in temperature anticipated for the next century, more complex modelling studies of the relationship between climate and glacier mass balance is key to understanding the future development of Rabots Glaciär.

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