The Role of El Niño in Driving Drought Conditions over the Last 2000 Years in Thailand

Power, Katherine Elizabeth; Barnett, Jamie; Dickinson, Travis; Axelsson, Josefine

doi:10.3390/quat3020018

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…Zhao et al showed that ENSO has a good ability to monitor drought and plays an important role in drought resistance and disaster reduction [48]. Katherine et al showed that the ENSO climate phenomenon could affect the drought situation in Thailand to a certain extent [49]. Xing et al studied ENSO cold and warm events and found that ENSO could easily lead to drought, and identified According to cross wavelet energy spectrum and condensation spectrum, ENSO has the greatest influence on meteorological drought, and NAO has the least influence on meteorological drought.…”

Section: Driving Factor Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Meteorological Drought in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin and Its Driving Factors

Zhang,

Guo,

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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In order to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of meteorological drought and explore its driving factors, the inland river basin of Inner Mongolia (IMIRB) was taken as a typical research area, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) of various scales was calculated, and the spatio-temporal trend change characteristics of meteorological drought were analyzed combined with the modified Mann–Kendall trend test (MMK). The typical meteorological drought events were analyzed by using the three-dimensional identification method, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and dynamic evolution law of meteorological drought were analyzed comprehensively and accurately. The driving effects of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and sunspot on meteorological drought were investigated by using the cross wavelet method. The results are as follows: (1) with the increase of SPEI time scale, the frequency of meteorological drought decreased, but the duration and intensity of drought increased; (2) the trend was greatest in spring, with the largest number of areas showing a significant downward trend in SPEI, the strongest persistence in intensity, and significant aridification characteristics; (3) summer meteorological droughts had the largest area of high intensity drought but the smallest area of high frequency areas, and winter droughts had the smallest area of high intensity drought but the largest percentage of high frequency areas; (4) the meteorological drought event that occurred from April 2017 to December 2017 was the most serious, and reached its maximum value in June 2017, which mainly experienced five processes: occurrence—intensification—attenuation—re-intensification—extinction; (5) atmospheric circulation factor, sunspot, and meteorological drought of IMIRB were correlated, and ENSO had the greatest effect on drought. This study provides effective theoretical support for IMIRB drought prevention and disaster reduction.

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Section: Driving Factor Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Meteorological Drought in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin and Its Driving Factors

Zhang,

Guo,

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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“…The ENSO-induced variability in precipitation, resulted in the great flood of Thailand in 2011 due to high precipitation during strong La Niña (Gale and Saunders 2013). In contrast, during El Niño, the positive phase of the IOD (pIOD), and the ENSO neutral condition, dramatic declines in precipitation and droughts have been reported (Kim et al 2020;Power et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal and interannual variations of MODIS Aqua chlorophyll-a (2003–2017) in the Upper Gulf of Thailand influenced by Asian monsoons

et al. 2021

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Seasonal and interannual variations of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in the upper Gulf of Thailand (uGoT) were obtained using new regionally tuned algorithms applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Aqua. This long time-series (2003–2017) data were analyzed in the context of variations in environmental conditions associated with the Southeast Asian Monsoon. Chl-a distribution patterns were distinct for the non-monsoon (NOM), southwest-monsoon (SWM), and northeast-monsoon (NEM) seasons. During the SWM/NEM, high/low chl-a concentrations were associated with high/low precipitation and river discharge. During the NOM chl-a concentrations were generally low, because of low precipitation. In general, chl-a variability was tightly coupled to discharge from the Chao Phraya and Tha Chin rivers. Chl-a concentrations were generally higher in the north, but chl-a accumulation in the east/west of the uGoT could be linked to piling of freshwater to the east/west during the SWM/NEM caused by changes in wind direction and the reversal of currents. Interannual changes in chl-a were attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rather than Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) driven changes in precipitation, river discharge, and wind patterns. During the SWM, positive/negative chl-a anomalies coincided with high/low precipitation and river discharge during La Niña/El Niño. During the NEM, positive/negative chl-a anomaly coincided with high/low river discharge and strong/weak wind during La Niña/El Niño. Meanwhile, during NOM, positive chl-a anomaly could be attributed to anomalous high wind speed and precipitation during El Niño.

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“…In addition, abnormally low rainfall or droughts over Thailand may not be a direct consequence of a global climate condition, such as ENSO. Research has indicated that droughts in this region can occur in both El Niño and neutral ENSO events (Power et al ., 2020). Therefore, information from the ENSO phenomena alone is not sufficient to explain the variability of rainfall in Thailand.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence and variability of monsoon trough and front on rainfall in Thailand

Tomkratoke

Sirisup

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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High variabilities in rainfall and the subsequent consequences have caused severe water-related issues for Thailand over recent decades. In this study, the factors that affect rainfall variability over Thailand were determined. The spatio-temporal structures of the monthly rainfall in Thailand between 1979 and 2018 were extracted via an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis.With a unimodal temporal structure, the first EOF mode suggests the overall phenomenon governing rain characteristics in Thailand. The higher modes, consisting of bimodal temporal structures, indicate different rain phenomena in various regions. A significantly high correlation between the 3-month average of the monsoon trough index and rainfall was observed, while wet adiabatic front and convective available potential energy (CAPE) data had a moderately high correlation. Only the local front index, within the Gulf of Thailand, correlated to the rain characteristics along the east coast of southern Thailand. The cross-wavelet analysis indicated that most of the rainfall variability correlates with monsoon trough. However, the front can involve extreme events. The interannual variability of monsoon trough and rainfall with a dominant time scale between 3.0 and 6.0 years has significantly increased since 1995. Meanwhile, the intra-annual variability is more intermittent, indicating rare intensified strong tropical cyclones along the monsoon troughs in Thailand. The interannual variability of the monsoon trough and front indices also intermittently connects with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). However, the relationship in annual and intra-annual cycles is mostly weak. Therefore, the dependence of interannual variability of rainfall in Thailand on SOI or monsoon trough is comparable. Notably, the intra-annual rainfall variability is heavily influenced by the monsoon trough and front. This study is the first to identify the crucial factors behind the seasonal rain phenomena in Thailand. This information will benefit seasonal rainfall predictors and increase preparedness for hydro-climatic related disasters in the Indo-China region.

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The Role of El Niño in Driving Drought Conditions over the Last 2000 Years in Thailand

Cited by 6 publications

References 75 publications

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Meteorological Drought in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin and Its Driving Factors

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Meteorological Drought in Inner Mongolia Inland River Basin and Its Driving Factors

Seasonal and interannual variations of MODIS Aqua chlorophyll-a (2003–2017) in the Upper Gulf of Thailand influenced by Asian monsoons

Influence and variability of monsoon trough and front on rainfall in Thailand

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