<p>Climate extremes bring both challenges and opportunities for increasing resilience in agriculture and communities. Drought impact assessments are useful to identify systemwide vulnerabilities and downstream effects from water shortages to agriculture, and aid governments, irrigation user organizations and farmers in both short-term response and planning. The recent climate extremes in California, USA over the past 2012-2022 decade provide a useful case study as one of the largest irrigated agricultural systems which are applicable to other semi-arid areas in the world. We present a framework to gather water supply availability for irrigation in California&#8217;s large and complex water supply system, estimate idle land, potential cropping patterns response and economic costs to irrigated agriculture, downstream food processing sectors and regional economies. Recent groundwater regulation forcing sustainable pumping rates at a local level bring additional challenges to cope with water scarcity. We employ regional water balances which consider diverse water supply portfolios for agriculture, remote sensing, and economic models which estimate profit-maximizing crop response and economic costs of water shortages to agriculture and related sectors. We also discuss data challenges in quantifying ultimate impacts of low precipitation, surface water reserves and groundwater restrictions, in a highly engineered and diversified water supply system. &#160;Estimated impacts on agriculture and regionwide income and employment from the 2012-2016 and the more recent 2019-2022 drought in California are discussed along with insights for short-term response, and longer-term water management, planning and policy.</p>
An economic assessment of the value of agricultural water was conducted at the subdistrict (module) level within the Alto Rio Lerma Irrigation District 011 in Guanajuato, Mexico. The assessment employed positive mathematical programming (PMP), a deductive valuation methodology, which self-calibrates to baseline production input use. Production and water use values for the 2016–2017 agricultural year, and the averages of the 2014 to 2017 agricultural years for yields, agricultural commodity prices, and production costs were employed disaggregated per irrigation module. Results indicate that the economic value of water is 1.8 to 4.7 times higher than the rate currently paid by users, about US$7.89 dam−3 (cubic decameters). The differences among the rate and shadow prices could create a pricing water policy focused on water conservation and its efficient use. This work also conducts an assessment of a formal water market in the irrigation district as way to achieve economically efficient water allocations and reduce the potential economic impacts of water shortage during droughts. Modeling results show that an active water market would allow the irrigation district to adapt to scarcer water conditions by shifting cropping patterns and trading water among subdistricts, by reducing loss in net income at the irrigation district. A successful implementation of this system would be feasible, provided that the irrigation modules are able to import and export water, under water scarcity scenarios considered for the water market model. Potential distributional effects and policy insights from this assessment are discussed.
Frontline communities of California experience disproportionate social, economic, and environmental injustices, and climate change is exacerbating the root causes of inequity in those areas. Yet, climate adaptation and mitigation strategies often fail to meaningfully address the experience of frontline community stakeholders. Here, we present three challenges, three errors, and three solutions to better integrate frontline communities' needs in climate change research and to create more impactful policies. We base our perspective on our collective firsthand experiences and on scholarship to bridge local knowledge with hydroclimatic research and policymaking. Unawareness of local priorities (Challenge 1) is a consequence of Ignoring local knowledge (Error 1) that can be, in part, resolved with Information exchange and expansion of community-based participatory research (Solution 1). Unequal access to natural resources (Challenge 2) is often due to Top-down decision making (Error 2), but Buffer zones for environmental protection, green areas, air quality, and water security can help achieve environmental justice (Solution 2). Unequal access to public services (Challenge 3) is a historical issue that persists because of System abuse and tokenism (Error 3), and it may be partially resolved with Multi-benefit projects to create socioeconomic and environmental opportunities within frontline communities that include positive externalities for other stakeholders and public service improvements (Solution 3). The path forward in climate change policy decision-making must be grounded in collaboration with frontline community members and practitioners trained in working with vulnerable stakeholders. Addressing co-occurring inequities exacerbated by climate change requires transdisciplinary efforts to identify technical, policy, and engineering solutions.
Assessing impacts on coupled food-water systems that may emerge from water policies, changes in economic drivers and crop productivity requires an understanding of dominant uncertainties. This paper assesses how a candidate groundwater pumping restriction and crop prices, crop yields, surface water price, electricity price, and parametric uncertainties shape economic and groundwater performance metrics from a coupled hydro-economic model (HEM) through a diagnostic global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The HEM used in this study integrates a groundwater depth response, modeled by an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), into a calibrated Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) agricultural production model. Results show that in addition to a groundwater pumping restriction, performance metrics are highly sensitive to prices and yields of perennial tree crops. These sensitivities become salient during dry years when there is a higher reliance on groundwater. Furthermore, results indicate that performing a GSA for two different water baseline conditions used to calibrate the production model, dry and wet, result in different sensitivity indices magnitudes and factor prioritization. Diagnostic GSA results are used to understand key factors that affect the performance of a groundwater pumping restriction policy. This research is applied to the Wheeler Ridge-Maricopa Water Storage District located in Kern County, California, region reliant on groundwater and vulnerable to surface water shortages.
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