In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually—far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before declining approximately 9% by 2030.

Our findings contrast with previous estimates of HIV among labor migrants in the United States that were based on nonprobability samples. Our findings also underline the need for early HIV prevention interventions targeting this population of Mexican migrants.

Objetivo. Estimar la seroprevalencia de VIH en población mexicana no institucionalizada de 15 a 49 años, y aspectos selectos del perfil de la población serorreactiva. Material y métodos. Estudio transversal con una muestra probabilística de la población del país de 15 a 49 años, con información sobre comportamientos obtenida por entrevista directa en los hogares y determinación de anticuerpos para VIH en sangre capilar. Resultados. Se identificó una seroprevalencia de 0.15% (IC95% 0.09-0.21) en la población de 15 a 49 años; de 0.07% (IC95% 0.03-0.11) en mujeres, y de 0.24% (IC95% 0.11-0.36) en hombres. La población serorreactiva a VIH son hombres jóvenes, de mayor nivel socioeconómico en relación con la población general y con información que sugiere una mayor cobertura por la seguridad social (49.9% en serorreactivos contra 34.5% en no serorreactivos). El 49.4% de los serorreactivos contra 18.5% de los no serorreactivos se había realizado al menos una prueba de detección de VIH. Conclusiones. La seroprevalencia de VIH estimada en la Encuesta Nacional de Salud y Nutrición (Ensanut) 2012 sugiere que ésta se ha mantenido relativamente estable desde 2000. La estimación representa alrededor de 104000 personas (rango de entre 53000 y 126000) de 15 a 49 años que viven con VIH en México (75% de los cuales son hombres), de los que 50.6% desconocería su estatus serológico. Implementando un modelo de corrección de sesgo y agregando a los estimados en hogar, los casos estimados entre población de hombres que tienen sexo con hombres (tanto homosexual como bisexual), la estimación de la seroprevalencia alcanzaría 0.23%, con un total de 140000 personas de 15 a 49 años viviendo con VIH (con un intervalo estimado de entre 92000 y 201000 personas).

Fast Track modeling working group There is an error in Table 1. The sixth row under the "Medical Interventions" heading is missing. Please see the correct Table 1 here.

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