While considering constraints in regard to sustainability, this paper reviews the development of a methodology to assess the introduction of bioenergy supply chains in Mexico based on forest woody biomass. Three research modules include analyses of forest biomass utilization residues that originated from: (1) harvesting activities, (2) non-extracted stands and (3) sawmills. A regional case study focusing on tree species of commercial importance (pine, oak and fir) in the 10 provinces with the highest timber production located in the north and central-south part of the country, is analyzed. After applying the methodology, the theoretical potential of available woody biomass for energetic use amounts to 6,357,482 m 3 . When applying the sustainability constraints, the technically feasible supply of forest woody biomass for energetic use sums up to 5,798,722 m 3 , which relate to a technical energy potential of 45.96 PJ for 2013. Moreover, a biomass energy flow chart showing energy values for each analyzed source and species is presented. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for each cost involved in utilizing the resulting available woody biomass for energetic use. In the absence of national studies which include forest operations and bioenergy transformation to calculate the sustainable energy potential, the developed methodology adds innovation for assessing woody biomass availability.
Considering that the world transport sector is the second largest contributor of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to energy use and the least decarbonized sector, it is highly recommended that all countries implement ambitious public policies to decarbonize this sector. In Mexico the transport sector generates the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions, in 2014 it contributed with 31.3% of net emissions. Two original scenarios for the Mexican transport sector, a no-policy baseline scenario (BLS) and a low carbon scenario (LCS) were constructed. In the LCS were applied 21 GHG mitigation measures, which far exceeds the proposals for reducing transport sector GHG emissions that Mexico submitted in its National Determined Contributions (NDC). As a result, the proposed LCS describes a sector transformation path characterized by structural changes in freight and passenger mobility, new motor technologies for mobility, introduction of biofuels, price signals, transportation practices and regulations, as well as urban planning strategies, which altogether achieve an accumulated reduction of 3166 MtCO2e in a 25 year period, producing a global net benefit of 240,772 MUSD and a GHG emissions’ reduction of 56% in 2035 in relation to the BLS.
The residential, commercial, and public sectors consume between 20% and 30% of final energy demand worldwide. Due to the intensive use of fossil fuels and conventional electricity, they also have an important participation in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). Taking Mexico as a case study, this article develops an alternative scenario that considers that in these sectors, buildings can generate energy for self-consumption or to supply it to the power network—for which four solar energy options are analyzed. In addition, to manage and rationalize the energy demand of these buildings, eight energy efficiency measures are studied. These options were selected on the basis that they are technically and economically feasible to implement in buildings in Mexico. The results reveal that by 2030, in relation to the GHG trend scenario, this mitigation scenario reduces 23.5 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in the residential (19 MtCO2e), commercial (2.6 MtCO2e), and public services sectors (1.9 MtCO2e), while by 2035 it reaches 45 MtCO2e; which far exceed the avoided emissions goals established in Mexico’s nationally determined contributions (NDC) for 2030 (5 MtCO2e) for the residential and commercial sectors. Therefore, it is possible to increase the ambition for mitigation in these sectors, as well as including the public sector, in a renewed Mexico’s NDC. This mitigation scenario generates a total economic benefit of $7.7 billion, which means that it does not generate an overall incremental cost, but requires an incremental investment of over $9 billion USD, which is a financing challenge to achieve this scenario.
Bioenergy in Mexico offers a great potential as a transition strategy for introducing new energy supply chains. However, studies which focus on wood supply chains for bioenergy generation at a national level are scarce. Hence, this paper presents a model for predicting short-term availability of woody biomass for energetic use according to two scenarios. Scenario A exhibits business as usual conditions. In scenario B, the availability of forest woody biomass is improved by an increment in the areas of sustainably managed forest. The theoretical, technical and economic potentials of forest woody biomass availability for energetic use were assessed using (a) numerical modeling, (b) Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and (c) regression analyses Sustainability constraints and challenges such as soil degradation, terrain slope and mechanization level were considered. A regional case study was carried out, focusing on three species with the highest utilization rates (Pinus, Quercus and Abies). Setting the base at the year 2013, a forecast analysis for the year 2023 was performed. Under scenario B, for year 2023 a technical potential of 60.22 PJ was calculated, meaning an achievement of the goals set by the National Forestry Council regarding hectares under sustainable utilization. Furthermore, a net future value analysis was carried out to account the economic output during the forecasted period. Where comprehensive data was not available, the developed model was especially useful for predicting potentially available woody biomass for energy use.
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