While considering constraints in regard to sustainability, this paper reviews the development of a methodology to assess the introduction of bioenergy supply chains in Mexico based on forest woody biomass. Three research modules include analyses of forest biomass utilization residues that originated from: (1) harvesting activities, (2) non-extracted stands and (3) sawmills. A regional case study focusing on tree species of commercial importance (pine, oak and fir) in the 10 provinces with the highest timber production located in the north and central-south part of the country, is analyzed. After applying the methodology, the theoretical potential of available woody biomass for energetic use amounts to 6,357,482 m 3 . When applying the sustainability constraints, the technically feasible supply of forest woody biomass for energetic use sums up to 5,798,722 m 3 , which relate to a technical energy potential of 45.96 PJ for 2013. Moreover, a biomass energy flow chart showing energy values for each analyzed source and species is presented. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for each cost involved in utilizing the resulting available woody biomass for energetic use. In the absence of national studies which include forest operations and bioenergy transformation to calculate the sustainable energy potential, the developed methodology adds innovation for assessing woody biomass availability.
Bioenergy in Mexico offers a great potential as a transition strategy for introducing new energy supply chains. However, studies which focus on wood supply chains for bioenergy generation at a national level are scarce. Hence, this paper presents a model for predicting short-term availability of woody biomass for energetic use according to two scenarios. Scenario A exhibits business as usual conditions. In scenario B, the availability of forest woody biomass is improved by an increment in the areas of sustainably managed forest. The theoretical, technical and economic potentials of forest woody biomass availability for energetic use were assessed using (a) numerical modeling, (b) Holt-Winters exponential smoothing and (c) regression analyses Sustainability constraints and challenges such as soil degradation, terrain slope and mechanization level were considered. A regional case study was carried out, focusing on three species with the highest utilization rates (Pinus, Quercus and Abies). Setting the base at the year 2013, a forecast analysis for the year 2023 was performed. Under scenario B, for year 2023 a technical potential of 60.22 PJ was calculated, meaning an achievement of the goals set by the National Forestry Council regarding hectares under sustainable utilization. Furthermore, a net future value analysis was carried out to account the economic output during the forecasted period. Where comprehensive data was not available, the developed model was especially useful for predicting potentially available woody biomass for energy use.
Productive forests, as a major source of biomass, represent an important pre-requisite for the development of a bio-economy. In this respect, assessments of biomass availability, efficiency of forest management, forest operations, and economic feasibility are essential. This is certainly the case for Mexico, a country with an increasing energy demand and a considerable potential for sustainable forest utilization. Hence, this paper focuses on analyzing economic alternatives for the Mexican bioenergy supply based on the costs and revenues of utilizing woody biomass residues. With a regional spatial approach, harvesting and transportation costs of utilizing selected biomass residues were stochastically calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. A sensitivity analysis of percentage variation of the most probable estimate in relation to the parameters price and cost for one alternative using net future analysis was conducted. Based on the results for the northern region, a 10% reduction of the transportation cost would reduce overall supply cost, resulting in a total revenue of 13.69 USD/m 3 and 0.75 USD/m 3 for harvesting residues and non-extracted stand residues, respectively. For the central south region, it is estimated that a contribution of 16.53 USD/m 3 from 2013 and a total revenue of 33.00 USD/m 3 in 2030 from sawmill residues will improve the value chain. The given approach and outputs provide the basis for the decision-making process regarding forest utilization towards energy generation based on economic indicators.
Aim of the study: Integrated information tools models are fundamental for analyzing supply chains as regards pattern of consumption and production. These models are very useful for availability estimations of natural resources when social and environmental uncertainties need to be addressed, as it is the case for forest wood supply chains. This work presents an analysis of a forest wood supply chain focusing on forest operations to estimate the availability of round-wood volume restricted by technical constraints using a local case study in Mexico. The theoretical and technical potentials of woody biomass availability were reviewed considering an assessment of forest operations for round-wood production.Area of the study: municipality of Santa Maria del Rio S.L.P. inside the forested land of San Antonio in Mexico.Material and methods: Geographical, historical and socioeconomic data and field work were used to develop technical constraints as extraction limits. Felling and extraction operations were analyzed resulting in a production rate of 2.48 m3 per productive machine hour.Main results: The theoretically produced standing timber accounted to 21,132 m3. After simulating technical constraints, the technically feasible supply of round-wood accounted to 2, 113 m3. Furthermore, a biomass flow chart for tracing biomass along the system boundaries was developed.Research highlights: With the given results, it is possible to give recommendations and conclusions for the improvement of wood supply chains supported by time studies values, technical constraints on terrain slope, harvesting intensity and mechanization level.Keywords: Mexico; modeling; forest operations; sustainable forest management.
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