The relationship between poverty and economic growth has been widely discussed in the economic development literature during the past few decades. However, most of this research has been based on cross-sectional studies and very few studies have used time-series techniques to analyze this important issue. At the same time, there are also only a few studies analyzing this issue for the case of Mexico. Therefore, the objective of this paper was to analyze the relationship between poverty and economic growth in Mexico, using a cointegration analysis with structural change for the period 1960–2016. The Gregory-Hansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth, both in the short run and in the long run. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), we find that, in the long run, a 1% increase in economic growth leads to a 2.4% increase in per capita consumption (and therefore poverty reduction). This estimate is similar to those obtained in other studies for the case of Mexico and for other developing countries. Also, using the Granger causality test, it was found that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth in Mexico.

The objective of this paper was to investigate, with respect to the case of Mexico, the relationship between international tourism and the magnitude of poverty during the period of 1980–2017, through the use of an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) cointegration model with a structural break. The econometric results obtained in this paper indicate that there is a long-term relationship between international tourism and the reduction of poverty. It was found that for every 1% increase in international tourism, household consumption per capita increases 0.46% (and, therefore, poverty decreases). In the short term, it was found that a 1% increase in international tourism leads to a 0.11 % increase in household consumption per capita (a decrease in poverty). The coefficient of the error correction model indicates that 23.9% of any movement into disequilibrium is corrected within one year. To corroborate these results, a Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test was carried out, indicating a unidirectional causality relationship from international tourism towards the reduction of poverty.

Purpose More than half of the Mexican population lives in poverty. While there are many studies about poverty in Mexico, there are very few about the dynamics of poverty. The purpose of this paper is to measure chronic and transient poverty in Mexico and to analyze its determinants. Design/methodology/approach Based on the spells approach, a transition matrix was estimated and a multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of various socioeconomic and demographic variables upon the dynamics of poverty. Findings It was found that 36 percent of households are chronically poor and 64 percent are transiently poor. The results show that variables directly related to chronic poverty are belonging to an ethnic minority group, living in a rural area, a large family size, having a high percentage of older adults and children in the household and having a female household head. Having more education, having more assets, the age of the household head and having access to potable water and electricity in the household are variables positively related with the probability of escaping poverty. Originality/value To the authors knowledge, this is the first study on the dynamics of poverty using the spells approach for Mexico as a whole, not just for urban areas. The value of this work is that it estimates chronic and transitory poverty in Mexico as well as their possible determinants. The study findings can be used by the government to design and implement public policies to alleviate both chronic and transient poverty in Mexico.

This study examines the determinants or correlates of poverty in México.

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Most studies on the determinants of poverty do not consider that the relative importance of each of these determinants can vary depending on the degree of poverty suffered by each group of poor people. For Mexico’s case, the studies carried out so far do not contemplate this approach, even though there is wide variation in the degree of poverty among the different groups of the poor. Investigating these differences is important to design better policies for fighting poverty, which consider how each variable that explains poverty affects each group of people who suffer from poverty differently. This article examines the determinants of poverty for Mexican households. Using data from the Mexican National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) 2018, the study estimates a probit model and a quantile regression model to examine the extent to which the determinants of poverty vary across the poverty spectrum. The results from the probit model indicate that households with more than one member, having a female head, or speaker of an indigenous language are more likely to be poor. The results obtained in the quantile regressions indicate that there are significant differences with the results of the simple ordinary least squares model, especially for households in extreme poverty but also for the other income categories analyzed for several of the explanatory variables used in the models. Households in the categories extremely poor and deeply poor are most affected if they are in the southern region or if the household head speaks an indigenous language or is an elderly person. It is observed that achieving a higher educational level is an effective way to increase income across the poverty spectrum.

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This study examines the determinants or correlates of poverty in México.