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Agroecosystem models need to reliably simulate all biophysical processes that control crop growth, particularly the soil water fluxes and nutrient dynamics. As a result of the erosion history, truncated and colluvial soil profiles coexist in arable fields. The erosion-affected field-scale soil spatial heterogeneity may limit agroecosystem model predictions. The objective was to identify the variation in the importance of soil properties and soil profile modifications in agroecosystem models for both agronomic and environmental performance. Four lysimeters with different soil types were used that cover the range of soil variability in an erosion-affected hummocky agricultural landscape. Twelve models were calibrated on crop phenological stages, and model performance was tested against observed grain yield, aboveground biomass, leaf area index, actual evapotranspiration, drainage, and soil water content. Despite considering identical input data, the predictive capability among models was highly diverse. Neither a single crop model nor the multi-model mean was able to capture the observed differences between the four soil profiles in agronomic and environmental

Aim of the study was the evaluation of the present state and further development of drought risk to agricultural sites in Northeast (NE) and Central Germany in consideration of climate changes. Based on the Medium Scale Agricultural Site Map, soil‐hydrological data were derived for heterogeneous soil areas. They refer to the landscapes in NE and Central Germany characterized by low precipitation, marked spatial soil heterogeneity, and a high share of hydromorphic soils. The soil data were linked with long‐term climate records of 368 stations for the period 1951–2000 as well as a climate scenario for the period 2001–2055. The plant water supply was calculated for three crop groups: cereals, root crops, and grass. The current and future development of drought risk of agricultural land of NE and Central Germany was evaluated. Starting in 1951, the water supply over the vegetation period has been decreasing with time for all crop groups up to now and may continue up to the year 2055 at most sites. However, there are also regions with increased plant water supply. The federal states of Brandenburg and Saxony‐Anhalt showed the strongest water deficit. Especially in these states, the plant water supply is strongly limited for cereals already today and probably may get worse for all crops in the future. On an average of the years, drought may limit plant growth in parts at >40% of agricultural land. In the federal states Mecklenburg‐Western Pomerania, Saxony, and Thuringia, the plant water supply mostly will stay in an approximately sufficient range due to higher precipitation and more favorable soil quality. The results are a background for the assessment of land‐use planning and evaluation of current and future soil‐ and site‐specific crop growing suitability on a medium scale.

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