Drought risk to agricultural land in Northeast and Central Germany

Abstract

Aim of the study was the evaluation of the present state and further development of drought risk to agricultural sites in Northeast (NE) and Central Germany in consideration of climate changes. Based on the Medium Scale Agricultural Site Map, soil‐hydrological data were derived for heterogeneous soil areas. They refer to the landscapes in NE and Central Germany characterized by low precipitation, marked spatial soil heterogeneity, and a high share of hydromorphic soils. The soil data were linked with long‐term climate records of 368 stations for the period 1951–2000 as well as a climate scenario for the period 2001–2055. The plant water supply was calculated for three crop groups: cereals, root crops, and grass. The current and future development of drought risk of agricultural land of NE and Central Germany was evaluated. Starting in 1951, the water supply over the vegetation period has been decreasing with time for all crop groups up to now and may continue up to the year 2055 at most sites. However, there are also regions with increased plant water supply. The federal states of Brandenburg and Saxony‐Anhalt showed the strongest water deficit. Especially in these states, the plant water supply is strongly limited for cereals already today and probably may get worse for all crops in the future. On an average of the years, drought may limit plant growth in parts at >40% of agricultural land. In the federal states Mecklenburg‐Western Pomerania, Saxony, and Thuringia, the plant water supply mostly will stay in an approximately sufficient range due to higher precipitation and more favorable soil quality. The results are a background for the assessment of land‐use planning and evaluation of current and future soil‐ and site‐specific crop growing suitability on a medium scale.

Exploring the link between drought indicators and impacts

“…BB in the northeast of Germany showed similar SPI and SPEI thresholds (less negative) as the other northern states for short accumulation periods, yet not for longer ones. Other studies also report on lower soil moisture availability and higher drought vulnerability of the northeast of Germany (Samaniego et al, 2013;Schindler et al, 2007;Schröter et al, 2005). Regardless of the drivers of differences among states one could argue that assuming a fixed trigger applied to a large area varying in geographic properties may not be appropriate.…”

Dryness dynamics of the Baltic Sea region

“…Also decrease in drought recurrence is found by using other meteorological drought indexes and determination methods in different parts of the BSR (Mager et al 2000;Hisdal, Tallaksen 2003;Tammets 2007;Jakimavičiūtė, Stankūnavičius 2008;Avotniece et al 2010;Samaniego et al 2011;Valiukas 2012). Agrometeorological drought occurrence shows negative trends (Schindler et al 2007;Daugėlienė, Žekonienė 2009;Tammets 2010;Kaznowska 2011), as does the hydrological one (Hisdal et al 2001;Stonevičius et al 2006;Kriaučiūnienė et al 2007;Kļaviņš et al 2008;Wilson et al 2010;Gailiušis et al 2011) in the BSR.…”

“…Most of the scientific investigations are concentrated on the spatial and temporal distribution of droughts (Hisdal et al 2001;Loyd-Hughes, Saunders 2002; and on the impact of droughts on hydrological cycles (Bordi et al 2009;Wilson et al 2010;Tallaksen et al 2011). Droughts are analyzed in a very wide context of scientific researches: drought impact on agro-ecosystems (Sakalauskaitė 2006;Schindler et al 2007;Kalbarczyk 2010;Rad, Zandi 2012) and on forest life (Maracchi et al 2005;Lindner et al 2007;MacKay et al 2012); interactions with water bodies (Peters et al 2006;Jakimavičius, Kovalenkovienė 2010;Hän-ninen, Vuorinen 2011) and water quality (Sakalauskiene, Ignatavicius 2003;van Vliet, Zwolsman 2008;Zielinski et al 2009). Palaeoclimatological drought conditions are discovered using sediments (Dippner, Voss 2004) and tree rings (Vitas, Erlickytė 2008;Bünt-gen et al 2010;Drobyshev et al 2011) data analysis.…”

Future consequences and challenges for dairy cow production systems arising from climate change in Central Europe – a review

“…Owing to the usually lower sward height, grazed grasslands (pastures) use less water than cut ones (meadows; Misztal and Zarzycki, 2010). Availability of sufficient water could become limiting in parts of Central Europe where the probability of summer droughts is greater (IPCC, 2007;Schindler et al, 2007). Furthermore, extreme rainfall events may impair the trafficability of grassland, lead to more severe effects of treading and directly damage taller vegetation.…”