This paper analyses the size and nature of the errors in GDP forecasts in the G7 countries from 1971 to 1995. These GDP short-term forecasts are produced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the Economic Outlook and in the World Economic Outlook, respectively. The evaluation of the accuracy of the forecasts is based on the properties of the dierence between the realization and the forecast. A forecast is considered to be accurate if it is unbiased and ecient. A forecast is unbiased if its average deviation from the outcome is zero, and it is ecient if it re¯ects all the information that is available at the time the forecast is made. Finally, we also examine tests of directional accuracy and oer a non-parametric method of assessment.

No abstract

This paper examines whether access to markets had a significant influence on migration choices of Spanish internal migrants in the interwar years. In it we perform a structural contrast of a New Economic Geography model that focuses on the forward linkage that links workers location choice with the geography of industrial production. The results prove the existence of a direct relation between workers' localization decisions and the market potential of the host regions. This could help to explain the apparently low intensity of internal migrations in Spain until the 1920s as well as its geography.

The aim of this paper is to analyse how economic integration in Europe has affected industrial geographical concentration in Spain and to explain the driving forces behind industry location. First, we construct regional specialization and geographical concentration indices for 50 Spanish provinces (NUTS III) and 30 industrial sectors in 1979, 1986 and 1992. Second, we carry out an econometric analysis of the determinants of the geographical concentration of industries. Our main conclusion is that there is no evidence of increasing specialization in Spain between 1979 and 1992, and that the most important determinant of Spain's economic geography is scale economies. Furthermore, traditional trade theory does not play a role in explaining the pattern of industrial concentration. Finally, inter-industry linkages have a negative effect on concentration, indicating that the opening up of the Spanish economy may have lessened the importance of being close to suppliers. Cet article cherche à analyser comment l'intégration économique en Europe a influé sur la concentration géographique industrielle en Espagne et à expliquer les forces motrices à l'origine de la localisation industrielle. Dans un premier temps, on construit des indices de spécialisation régionale et de concentration géographique pour 50 provinces en Espagne (NUTS III) et pour 30 secteurs industriels en 1979, 1986 et 1992. Dans un deuxième temps, on fait une analyse économétrique des déterminants de la concentration géographique des industries. Cela amènèa conclure que la spécialisation ne se développe pas en Espagne entre 1979 et 1992, et que les économies d'échelle constituent le déterminant le plus important de la géographie économique d'Espagne. En outre, la théorie d'échanges traditionnelle ne joue aucun rôle dans la structure de la concentration industrielle. Finalement, les échanges inter-industriels ont un impact négatif sur la concentration, ce qui laisse supposer que l'ouverture de l'économie espagnole aurait pu réduire l'importance de la proximité aux fournisseurs. Das Ziel dieses Aufsatzes ist, zu analysieren, inwieweit wirtschaftliche Integration in Europa sich auf die geographische Konzentration der Industrien in Spanien ausgewirkt hat, und die treibenden Kräfte hinter Industriestandortwahl zu erklären. Zunächst werden Register der regionalen Spezialisierung und der geographischen Konzentration für 50 spanische Provinzen (NUTS III) und für 30 Industriesektoren in den Jahren 1979, 1986 und 1992 aufgestellt. Danach wird eine ökonomische Analyse der die geographische Konzentration der Industrien bestimmenden Faktoren durchgeführt. Die Hauptschlußfolgerung der Autoren lief darauf hinaus, daß im Zeitraum 1970-1992 keinerlei Anzeichen zunehmender Spezialisierung in Spanien zu verzeichnen waren, und daß der wichtigste, ausschlaggebende Faktor der Wirtschaftsgeographie Spaniens in der Kostendigression zu sehen ist. Darüber hinaus spielt überkommene Handelstheorie keine Rolle bei der Erklärung von Mustern industrieller Konzentration. Ein letzter Punkt...

No abstract

Migrations, Industrial agglomerations, Market potential, R23, N63, N64, N93, F14, F15,

This paper presents an efficient and objective procedure for the outcome-based assessment of engineering final year projects (FYP). The procedure, consisting of 6 steps, can easily be customized for different engineering curricula. A User Guide has been developed to help institutions create their own FYP assessment system. The guide includes the assessment procedure and aids for its implementation. Particularly, a set of FYP-oriented observable descriptors for Tuning outcomes was defined. The end-products of the proposed assessment procedure are a set of assessment reports that the evaluator agent/s must fulfil per milestone, marking the level reached by the student at every descriptor (0: unacceptable, 1: minimum acceptable, 2: good, 3: excellent). These marks are then gathered together in an overall assessment sheet showing, for every learning outcome, the evolution along the assessment milestones of the level reached by the student at any descriptor. This sheet is a very powerful tool for setting the final mark. All assessment agents use the same list of descriptors and the same levels of acquisition, thus improving the consistency, traceability and global quality of the assessment process.

Abstract:In the spirit of Hanson (1997), we analyze the existence of regional nominal wage gradients in Spain during the interwar period (1914)(1915)(1916)(1917)(1918)(1919)(1920)(1921)(1922)(1923)(1924)(1925)(1926)(1927)(1928)(1929)(1930) and their transformation following an important change in trade policy. However, our case study analyzes the effects of the substitution of an open economy by a closed one -exactly the reverse of the process studied by Hanson. We find strong evidence of the existence of a regional wage gradient centered on Barcelona, which weakened after 1922. In Spain during the interwar period protectionist policies appear to have favored the loss of centrality of the coastal location (Barcelona) and the relative rise of other locations. (1997), we analyze the existence of regional nominal wage gradients in Spain during the interwar period (1914)(1915)(1916)(1917)(1918)(1919)(1920)(1921)(1922)(1923)(1924)(1925)(1926)(1927)(1928)(1929)(1930) and their transformation following an important change in trade policy. However, our case study analyzes the e¤ects of the substitution of an open economy by a closed one -exactly the reverse of the process studied by Hanson. We …nd strong evidence of the existence of a regional wage gradient centered on Barcelona, which weakened after 1922. In Spain during the interwar period protectionist policies appear to have favored the loss of centrality of the coastal location (Barcelona) and the relative rise of other locations.